# Kinematic Threat Brief

**LRRK Watch / Open-Source Intelligence** — Five current signals across systems that sense, move, and act.

| Field | Value |
| --- | --- |
| Collection cutoff | 30 November 2025 |
| Platform | Quiet Systems |
| Data label | Open-source intelligence // LRRK analytic product |
| Handling | Public-source material. Image rights require separate verification before publication. |

## Executive read

### BLUF

November was the month the cheap interceptor started to look real: U.S., Polish, and Romanian troops live-fired Merops in Poland, Flytrap 4.5 ran a 20-vendor C-UAS bake-off in Germany, Sting was already past 1,000 piston Shaheds — and on the night of 29–30 November it killed jet Geran-3s for the first time.

### Key judgments

1. **[Assessment — high confidence]** On 18 November, after ten days of training, U.S., Polish, and Romanian soldiers conducted the first allied live demonstration of the Merops C-UAS (Perennial Autonomy / ex–Project Eagle) at a Polish range; a NATO official told Janes the system had already been in Ukrainian service for more than 18 months.
2. **[Assessment — high confidence]** Project Flytrap 4.5 ran 10–21 November in Germany against simulated Group 1–3 threats, with on the order of 20 vendors and four $350,000 prizes, feeding the Army’s Global Tactical Edge Acquisition Directorate marketplace.
3. **[Inference — high confidence]** Sting’s first jet-Shahed kills on 29–30 November, against a night the General Staff said included 138 Geran-3s, is the first public evidence that an electric interceptor can catch a turbojet one-way UAV in cruise.

### Analytic labels

- **Fact** — verified reporting or primary record
- **Assessment** — analytic judgment
- **Inference** — reasoned but not directly observed
- **Uncertainty** — unresolved information gap

### Source grades

- **A1** — authoritative primary record / directly confirmed
- **B1–B2** — generally reliable and corroborated
- **C3** — useful but requires caution

## 01. Sting past 1,000 — before the jet night

*Event / publication dates: early November 2025 Ukrainian reporting*

**Verified record — [Fact — B2]** Ukrainian coverage in early November stated that Wild Hornets’ Sting interceptor drones had shot down more than 1,000 Shahed- and Gerbera-type aircraft over the preceding months. Sting: AI-aided guidance, ~315 km/h, ceiling ~3 km, VR-goggle control, unit cost on the order of US$2,500. Fetched: https://oboronka.mezha.ua/en/ukrajinski-droni-perehoplyuvachi-sting-vpershe-znishchili-reaktivni-shahedi-306673/

**Threat landscape.** The cost-exchange finally has a Ukrainian number on the cheap side of the ledger.

**Intelligence assessment.** [Assessment — moderate-to-high confidence] “Over 1,000” is a founder/press figure, not an Air Force table. [Inference — high confidence] At ~$2,500 versus a Geran, the math works if the hit rate holds. [Uncertainty] Share of those 1,000 that were decoys.

**Opportunity.** An Air Force interceptor-drone column in the daily table.

**LRRK relevance.** Campaign / Kestrel. Watch Sting as a type, not as a stunt.

**Confidence.** Moderate-to-high.

## 02. Flytrap 4.5 — Germany, 10–21 November

*Event / publication dates: 10–21 November 2025*

**Verified record — [Fact — B1]** U.S. Army-led Project Flytrap 4.5 in Germany evaluated industry C-UAS offerings against simulated Group 1–3 drones in NATO airspace, in the wake of autumn drone sightings and the September Polish incursion. On the order of 20 U.S. and allied vendors competed; four $350,000 prizes were described. Winners are intended for a fast-track path into the Global Tactical Edge Acquisition Directorate (GTEAD) marketplace, where units can buy vetted systems. GTEAD’s Col. Christopher Hill said the next problems after C-UAS are ground autonomy and air-launched effects, and that the same process would be replicated in INDOPACOM next year for Australia, South Korea, Japan and other partners. Fetched: https://breakingdefense.com/2025/11/as-drones-menace-european-airspace-us-army-tests-c-uas-systems-in-germany/ ; https://www.nextgov.com/defense/2025/11/us-army-taking-counter-drone-experimentation-europe-indopacom/409800/

**Threat landscape.** The U.S. Army is trying to buy C-UAS the way Ukraine buys FPV — a marketplace, not a decade-long POR.

**Intelligence assessment.** [Assessment — high confidence] The event ran on those dates. [Inference — moderate confidence] Four $350k prizes do not equal a fielded eastern-flank architecture. [Uncertainty] Who won.

**Opportunity.** The GTEAD catalogue entry that names the four.

**LRRK relevance.** Control Fabric / Lab. File Flytrap as a requirements event feeding a marketplace.

**Confidence.** High on the event; low on winners.

## 03. Merops in Poland — 18 November live demo

*Event / publication dates: training from ~9 November; live demo 18 November; Janes 20 November*

**Verified record — [Fact — B1]** Soldiers of the 10th Army Air and Missile Defense Command trained for ten days with Polish and Romanian counterparts on Merops — a pickup-truck-mobile system (ground control, pneumatic launcher, AS3 Surveyor interceptor) used in Ukraine against Shahed-class one-way UAVs. First allied live demonstration 18 November. Maj. Nicholas Chopp (USAREUR-AF) told Janes Merops had destroyed “about USD200 million worth of Shaheds at a cost of about USD15 million worth of interceptors,” and that a Surveyor is around “10 percent of the cost of a Shahed.” A NATO official said Poland and Romania would use the systems “in the near future” against Russian airspace incursions. Fetched: https://www.janes.com/defence-intelligence-insights/defence-news/air/project-eagles-merops-c-uas-used-in-ukraine-for-over-18-months-prior-to-testing-by-us-polish-and-romanian-troops ; https://breakingdefense.com/2025/11/as-drones-menace-european-airspace-us-army-tests-c-uas-systems-in-germany/

**Threat landscape.** Eastern Sentry’s missing cheap interceptor now has a named candidate on Polish dirt.

**Intelligence assessment.** [Assessment — high confidence] The demo happened and the U.S. officers put cost figures on the record. [Inference — high confidence] “10 percent of a Shahed” is the sentence JIATF 401 needed. [Uncertainty] How many launchers Poland and Romania will actually buy.

**Opportunity.** A Polish MoD buy announcement.

**LRRK relevance.** Campaign / Kestrel / Watch. Passport a Merops node: truck, GCS, Surveyor cost, Ukrainian employment history.

**Confidence.** High on the demo; the $200 million / $15 million pair is an officer’s estimate (B2).

## 04. GTEAD points at INDOPACOM

*Event / publication dates: November 2025 Hill remarks at the European events*

**Verified record — [Fact — B1]** GTEAD’s senior director said the directorate would “replicate the same processes” in the Pacific next year to support U.S. units and partners in Australia, South Korea, Japan and elsewhere — after C-UAS, then ground autonomy and air-launched effects. Fetched: https://www.nextgov.com/defense/2025/11/us-army-taking-counter-drone-experimentation-europe-indopacom/409800/

**Threat landscape.** The marketplace model is being aimed at the theater Replicator was supposed to outfit.

**Intelligence assessment.** [Assessment — high confidence] The intent was stated this month. [Inference — moderate confidence] INDOPACOM C-UAS will not look like a Polish truck if the threat is PLA Group 3. [Uncertainty] First Pacific event date.

**Opportunity.** An INDOPACOM Flytrap-equivalent notice.

**LRRK relevance.** Campaign / Lab. Watch the first Pacific marketplace SKU.

**Confidence.** High on the statement; low on schedule.

## 05. Night of 29–30 November — Sting vs Geran-3

*Event / publication dates: 30 November 2025*

**Verified record — [Fact — B1]** Serhii Sternenko reported that Ukrainian-made Sting interceptors shot down several jet-powered Shaheds / Geran-3s for the first time during the night attack. Ukraine’s General Staff said Russia used 138 jet-powered Geran-3 drones that night and that most were destroyed by air defenses (not only Sting). Geran-3 public figures: ~3.5 m long, 3 m span, ~50 kg warhead, claimed 550–600 km/h and up to 2,500 km; Serhii “Flash” Beskrestnov and Ukrainian troops have recorded real cruise nearer 300–350 km/h, with dash only near known defenses — the window Sting (315 km/h) can use. Fetched: https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2025/11/30/8009669/ ; https://militarnyi.com/en/news/ukrainian-interceptor-drone-downs-jet-powered-shahed-for-the-first-time/

**Threat landscape.** The jet one-way UAV is no longer “too fast for the electric interceptor” as a blanket claim.

**Intelligence assessment.** [Assessment — high confidence] A first jet-Shahed interceptor kill is on the 30 November public ledger. [Inference — high confidence] Cruise-versus-dash is the tactical fact that makes it possible. [Uncertainty] How many of the 138 were actually jet Geran-3 versus a GS type-mix error, and how many Sting killed.

**Opportunity.** A wreckage set with turbojet + Sting impact.

**LRRK relevance.** Campaign / Kestrel / Lab. Update the Geran-3 file: interceptable in cruise.

**Confidence.** High on “first time” as claimed; moderate on the 138 count.

## Forward indicators

Ranked watchlist as of the collection cutoff (what a Watch desk would have monitored next).

1. Polish and Romanian Merops procurement quantities.
2. Flytrap 4.5 winner names on the GTEAD marketplace.
3. Sting-versus-Geran-3 rate in December nights.
4. FY26 NDAA C-UAS / drone language as it heads to a December signature.
5. FCC / FY25 §1709 clock — 23 December is the statutory deadline.

> **Collection integrity.** Pravda/Militarnyi on 30 November, Janes/Breaking Defense/Nextgov on the 10–21 November events. “1,000+” Sting kills kept at B2. No December FCC action imported. No classified Surveyor cost data beyond the officer quotes.

*LRRK — security assurance for systems that sense, move, and act.*

<p align="right"><span style="opacity:0.35;letter-spacing:0.18em;font-size:0.8em">L-C1</span></p>