LC-Ge · Kinematic Capability Profiles

Kinematic Capability Profile

# Kinematic Capability Profile

**LRRK Watch / Nation-state actor profile** — STIX 2.1 threat-actor fields applied to systems that sense, move, and act.

| Field | Value |
| --- | --- |
| Collection cutoff | 24 April 2026 |
| Platform | Quiet Systems |
| Data label | Open-source intelligence // LRRK analytic product |
| Handling | Public-source material. Image rights require separate verification before publication. |
| Actor | Turkey |
| Short name | TR |
| UN membership | Member |
| Profile depth | documented |

## Executive read

### BLUF

Türkiye has turned a private-sector UCAV champion (Baykar) and a state OEM (TUSAŞ) into a Sense/Act export machine — TB2/AKINCI in 38-country agreements, ANKA-III in munition flight test — that now experiments with GNSS-denied swarm one-way systems.

### Key judgments

1. **[Assessment — High confidence]** Bayraktar TB2 and AKINCI are mature export UCAVs; Baykar states 36-country TB2 and 16-country AKINCI agreements and $2.2 billion UAV-segment exports in 2025.
2. **[Assessment — High confidence]** ANKA-III is a flying-wing UCAV in ammunition flight test (TEBER-82, TOLUN) with a planned Air Force Command delivery (TUSAŞ).
3. **[Inference — Moderate confidence]** April 2026 Keşan swarm demo of K2 and Sivrisinek is an Act-path experiment, not yet a documented campaign employment.

### Analytic labels

- **Fact** — verified reporting or primary record
- **Assessment** — analytic judgment
- **Inference** — reasoned but not directly observed
- **Uncertainty** — unresolved information gap

### Source grades

- **A1** — authoritative primary record / directly confirmed
- **B1–B2** — generally reliable and corroborated
- **C3** — useful but requires caution

## Identity

STIX 2.1 Identity + Threat Actor. Values from the open vocabularies only.

| STIX field | Value |
| --- | --- |
| name | Turkey |
| aliases | Türkiye; Republic of Türkiye |
| identity_class | organization |
| threat_actor_types | nation-state |
| roles | director, sponsor |
| resource_level | nation-state |
| sophistication | expert |
| primary_motivation | organizational-gain |
| secondary_motivations | dominance |
| goals | Field indigenous UCAVs for national forces; hold global UCAV export share; extend into low-observable and swarm one-way systems |

## Intent and targeting

**[Fact]** Baykar (24 April 2026) presents K2 and Sivrisinek as next-generation kamikaze / loitering systems with AI swarm autonomy and GNSS-independent visual navigation, demonstrated at Keşan on 17 April 2026 with TB2, TB3, and AKINCI overhead. **[Fact]** TUSAŞ states ANKA III will be delivered to the Air Force Command. Intent is sovereign Sense/Act plus export revenue that funds the next increment.

## Capability — Sense

**[Fact]** TUSAŞ lists ANKA III ISR payloads as EO/IR and SAR/GMTI-ISAR, plus COMINT/ELINT/ESM. **[Fact]** Baykar lists TB2 (27 hours, national munitions MAM) and AKINCI (altitude record 45,118 feet, national AESA radar) on the corporate site. Sensor employment in export campaigns is documented in other country filings (AZ, UA) rather than restated here.

## Capability — Move

**[Fact]** TUSAŞ: ANKA III first flight 28 December (year given on page as the first-flight year in the ANKA-III narrative), MTOW about 6,500–7 tons, 40,000 ft, 0.7 Mach, 10 hours, turbofan, flying-wing low observability. **[Fact]** Baykar: TB3 and KIZILELMA are named next-generation air vehicles on the corporate site. **[Uncertainty]** ULAQ USV manufacturer site did not retrieve (curl 000); surface Move is not established in this filing.

## Capability — Act

**[Fact]** ANKA III has conducted TEBER-82 and TOLUN munition tests (TUSAŞ). Payload stations: 2 internal, 5 external; weapons listed as precision-guided bombs, laser-guided rockets, anti-tank missiles. **[Fact]** Baykar K2 performed a high-speed dive pass and Sivrisinek a coordinated dive in the 17 April 2026 demonstration; Sivrisinek is claimed at a range exceeding 1,000 km. Status of demo vs. service issue is **Uncertainty**.

## Inventory

| Domain | Status | Named systems (sourced) | Notes |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Air UAS | documented | Bayraktar TB2; Bayraktar TB3; Bayraktar AKINCI; Bayraktar KIZILELMA; K2; Sivrisinek; ANKA III (and ANKA/AKSUNGUR as programme heritage) | Manufacturer pages. STM Kargu not named — URL did not retrieve. |
| Surface USV | not established | | ulaq.global curl failed (HTTP 000). |
| Subsurface UUV / ROV | not established | | |
| C-UAS | not established | | |

## Industrial base and supply chain

**[Fact]** Baykar claims self-funded development, Defense Industry Agency (SSB) / TIM export-champion status 2021–2024, and 90% export revenue in recent years. **[Fact]** TUSAŞ ANKA III builds on ANKA and AKSUNGUR and 1,000,000 hours of family flight experience. Control Fabric is indigenous munitions (MAM, TEBER, TOLUN) plus export licensing.

## Observed employment

**[Fact]** Keşan demonstration 17 April 2026 (Baykar). **[Fact]** Export agreements with 38 countries (Baykar). Combat employment of TB2 is documented on customer filings (AZ 2020; UA) rather than re-litigated here from unsourced highlight reels.

## Relationships

- `attributed-to` Turkey (Identity, `organization`)
- `uses` Baykar, TUSAŞ
- `related-to` 36 TB2 and 16 AKINCI customer states (Baykar; names not listed on the fetched press page)
- `related-to` Azerbaijan and Ukraine as documented TB2 users (see those filings)

## LRRK turn-back

Passport is the TB2/AKINCI agreement set. Control Fabric is SSB export championship and indigenous munitions. Watch should treat ANKA-III munition tests and K2/Sivrisinek swarm demos as Act increments. Campaign language belongs on customer wars, not on the Keşan demo.

## Forward indicators

Raise: Air Force Command ANKA-III acceptance; a fetched ULAQ or STM page that lets USV/C-UAS cells be filled. Lower: a public collapse in Baykar export volume. Reclassify sophistication to innovator only after documented GNSS-denied combat employment, not a demo.

## Sources

1. TUSAŞ, ANKA-III product page, https://www.tusas.com/en/products/uav/operative-strategic-uav-systems/anka-III — A1
2. Baykar, 24 April 2026, https://baykartech.com/en/press/baykars-next-generation-platforms-the-k2-kamikaze-uav-and-the-sivrisinek-loitering-munition-take-to-the-field/ — A1
3. Baykar corporate site (fetched via search landing; press page used for named types), https://baykartech.com/ — A1

> **Collection integrity.** ulaq.global and STM Kargu URLs did not retrieve (HTTP 000). Those systems are unnamed. Surface/subsurface/C-UAS remain gaps.

*LRRK — security assurance for systems that sense, move, and act.*

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