LC-Ge · Kinematic Capability Profiles

Kinematic Capability Profile

# Kinematic Capability Profile

**LRRK Watch / Nation-state actor profile** — STIX 2.1 threat-actor fields applied to systems that sense, move, and act.

| Field | Value |
| --- | --- |
| Collection cutoff | 15 May 2026 |
| Platform | Quiet Systems |
| Data label | Open-source intelligence // LRRK analytic product |
| Handling | Public-source material. Image rights require separate verification before publication. |
| Actor | North Macedonia |
| Short name | MK |
| UN membership | Member |
| Profile depth | documented |

## Executive read

### BLUF

North Macedonia’s official kinematic object is a Turkish Aselsan Serçe 1 used in Wolves SOF training — tactical Sense, imported.

### Key judgments

1. **[Assessment — High confidence]** Army.mil.mk records first official drone-operator training for the Wolves, 9–19 September 2025, on Serçe 1.
2. **[Assessment — Moderate confidence]** Cold Peak 2025 had Wolves flying three drones and Hungarian SOF two, split between high-altitude ISR and close reconnaissance / target guidance.
3. **[Inference — Low confidence]** Adria Defense’s “no indigenous manufacturing” line (11 August 2026) is consistent with an import-only Passport but is not required to name Serçe 1.

### Analytic labels

- **Fact** — verified reporting or primary record
- **Assessment** — analytic judgment
- **Inference** — reasoned but not directly observed
- **Uncertainty** — unresolved information gap

### Source grades

- **A1** — authoritative primary record / directly confirmed
- **B1–B2** — generally reliable and corroborated
- **C3** — useful but requires caution

## Identity

STIX 2.1 Identity + Threat Actor. Values from the open vocabularies only.

| STIX field | Value |
| --- | --- |
| name | North Macedonia |
| aliases | Republic of North Macedonia / Army of the Republic of North Macedonia |
| identity_class | organization |
| threat_actor_types | nation-state |
| roles | sponsor / agent |
| resource_level | nation-state |
| sophistication | intermediate |
| primary_motivation | organizational-gain |
| secondary_motivations | ideology |
| goals | Sourced: put tactical UAVs into operational use in the 1st Infantry Brigade and SOF. Uncertainty: MALE or C-UAS programs. |


## Intent and targeting

**[Fact]** 1st Infantry Brigade training (11–15 May 2026 page exists on mil.mk; cutoff for this filing remains the dated Serçe 1 article) aims to put UAVs into operational use under SOPs. **[Assessment]** Intent is tactical ISR and SOF support, not a sourced strike UAS force.

## Capability — Sense

**[Fact]** Serçe 1 used as ISR at altitude and for close reconnaissance / target guidance in Cold Peak 2025. **[Uncertainty]** Other types (Raven/Puma in unrecovered interview text) are not inventoried.

## Capability — Move

**[Fact]** Operated at Ilinden barracks and Krivolak in night, wind, heat, and low visibility. **[Assessment]** Move is small tactical UAS. **[Uncertainty]** Endurance/range not taken from manufacturer marketing.

## Capability — Act

**[Uncertainty]** Target guidance is not the same as a kinetic payload. C-UAS not established.

## Inventory

| Domain | Status | Named systems (sourced) | Notes |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Air UAS | documented | Aselsan Serçe 1 | Wolves SOF training, September 2025 |
| Surface USV | not established |  | Collection gap |
| Subsurface UUV / ROV | not established |  | Collection gap |
| C-UAS | not established |  | Collection gap |

## Industrial base and supply chain

**[Fact]** Manufacturer Aselsan (Türkiye). **[Assessment]** Passport is a Turkish import. **[Uncertainty]** No indigenous UAV manufacturing is a secondary assessment, not a factory Fact.

## Observed employment

**[Fact]** Training and Cold Peak 2025 demonstration with Hungarian SOF.

## Relationships

- `attributed-to` — Army of the Republic of North Macedonia / Wolves SOF.
- `uses` — Aselsan Serçe 1.
- `related-to` — Türkiye; Hungary (exercise).

## LRRK turn-back

Moves **Sense / Move** and **Passport**. No Act. Watch is tactical SOF ISR.

## Forward indicators

- Raise: a named second type; a C-UAS buy; a Mistral-linked C-UAS concept.
- Lower: Serçe 1 unused after training.

## Sources

Numbered. Named outlet, date, URL, grade. Dead or unverified links are a form defect.

1. Army of the Republic of North Macedonia, 19 September 2025, https://mil.mk/special-forces/obuka-za-operatori-na-dron/?lang=en — A1
2. Army of the Republic of North Macedonia, 1st Infantry Brigade UAV operator training (11–15 May 2026), https://mil.mk/operations-command/obuka-za-operatori-so-bespilotni-letala-vo-1-pbr/?lang=en — A1
3. United Nations, Member States list, https://www.un.org/en/about-us/member-states — A1

> **Collection integrity.** If the May 2026 brigade page is used as a source, cutoff becomes 15 May 2026. Raven/Puma US-donation claims in a Pravda Balkan interview were not independently fetched and are omitted. `not established` is a gap.

*LRRK — security assurance for systems that sense, move, and act.*

<p align="right"><span style="opacity:0.35;letter-spacing:0.18em;font-size:0.8em">L-CGe</span></p>