LC-Ge · Kinematic Capability Profiles

Kinematic Capability Profile

# Kinematic Capability Profile

**LRRK Watch / Nation-state actor profile** — STIX 2.1 threat-actor fields applied to systems that sense, move, and act.

| Field | Value |
| --- | --- |
| Collection cutoff | 10 February 2026 |
| Platform | Quiet Systems |
| Data label | Open-source intelligence // LRRK analytic product |
| Handling | Public-source material. Image rights require separate verification before publication. |
| Actor | Belarus |
| Short name | BY |
| UN membership | Member |
| Profile depth | documented |

## Executive read

### BLUF

Minsk public kinematic weight is an industrial Control Fabric — Goskomvoenprom strike-UAV products and a KB Indela / UAVHELI line — not a fetched Armed Forces typed inventory.

### Key judgments

1. **[Assessment — Moderate confidence]** www1.ru (5 February 2026), citing the State Military-Industrial Committee press service, describes Kvadro-M as a modernised Kvadro-1400 strike rotary UAV for day/night attack with a gyrostabilised optic, 36 kg, ~25-minute endurance, and a 10 kg munition class.
2. **[Assessment — High confidence]** UAVHELI own about page (fetched) lists the bureau air products, including Griff-1, Berkut-class jet targets, and a peacekeeper turbojet attack aircraft (2.8 m span, 450 km/h).
3. **[Uncertainty]** Reform.news (23 January 2026) relays BELPOL documents claiming Belspetsvneshtechnika sold ~100 Mirotvorets one-way drones to an Indian firm in October 2025 — single-source, C3, not treated as a Belarusian force inventory.

### Analytic labels

- **Fact** — verified reporting or primary record
- **Assessment** — analytic judgment
- **Inference** — reasoned but not directly observed
- **Uncertainty** — unresolved information gap

### Source grades

- **A1** — authoritative primary record / directly confirmed
- **B1–B2** — generally reliable and corroborated
- **C3** — useful but requires caution

## Identity

STIX 2.1 Identity + Threat Actor. Values from the open vocabularies only.

| STIX field | Value |
| --- | --- |
| name | Belarus |
| aliases | Republic of Belarus / Goskomvoenprom / State Authority for Military Industry |
| identity_class | organization |
| threat_actor_types | nation-state |
| roles | sponsor, director |
| resource_level | nation-state |
| sophistication | intermediate |
| primary_motivation | organizational-gain |
| secondary_motivations | dominance |
| goals | Sourced: modernise and create VVST for the Armed Forces and export (Pantus, February 2026 board). Uncertainty: named UAS types on the state defence order. |

## Intent and targeting

**[Fact]** Chairman Pantus (board, 6 February 2026, via TSAMTO/vpk.name 10 February 2026): priority is modernising existing and creating new equipment demanded by the Armed Forces, other troops, and foreign markets; GOZ-2025 fulfilled; 2026 task is GOZ-2026 equipping and raising the domestic VVST share in the state defence order to 50% or more. **[Fact]** Kvadro-M press language (via www1.ru): destroy personnel and equipment day and night. **[Assessment]** Intent is import-substituting industrial Act/Sense for national forces and export. Named operational theaters are not on the board text.

## Capability — Sense

**[Fact]** Kvadro-M (Goskomvoenprom via www1.ru): zoom camera, thermal imager, rangefinder for detection and coordinate-fixing. **[Fact]** UAVHELI lists reconnaissance complexes (INDELA-6 / 6m) and EO/IR turrets (HD-190, OGD-20HIR) as bureau products. **[Uncertainty]** Which of those sensors are in Belarusian Armed Forces units is not established.

## Capability — Move

**[Fact]** Kvadro-M published figures: 72 km/h, up to 25 min, operating altitudes 150–250 m (max 500 m), comms to 5 km (10 km with relay), 36 kg. **[Fact]** UAVHELI Berkut/peacekeeper class: 2.8 m span, turbojet, parachute recovery on the target versions; peacekeeper take-off weight 46 kg, 450 km/h. **[Assessment]** Move is short-range rotary strike plus a jet one-way/target family on the industrial page — not a fetched MALE runway force.

## Capability — Act

**[Fact]** Kvadro-M: standard load given as three PTAB-2-class anti-tank bombs or other munitions up to 10 kg; hover-and-drop aiming. **[Fact]** UAVHELI peacekeeper: unmanned attack aircraft, turbojet. **[Uncertainty]** Mirotvorets export quantity and Indian end-user sit on BELPOL via Reform.news (C3). Status only. No employment how-to.

## Inventory

| Domain | Status | Named systems (sourced) | Notes |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Air UAS | documented | Kvadro-M (industry); peacekeeper / Berkut family (UAVHELI); Griff-1 (UAVHELI) | Service inventory vs export is Uncertainty |
| Surface USV | not established |  | Collection gap |
| Subsurface UUV / ROV | not established |  | Collection gap |
| C-UAS | not established |  | Collection gap |

## Industrial base and supply chain

**[Fact]** State Authority for Military Industry (Goskomvoenprom) is the central agency for weapons for the army and export (president.gov.by institutional page). **[Fact]** 2025 board: record industrial output; exports to 65 countries; import-substitution programme; 5,200 new equipment items and 75,000 rounds delivered to the Armed Forces; 16 VVST models adopted — UAV types not named in that list. **[Fact]** UAVHELI / KB Indela (Minsk) is a licensed UAV design bureau on its own page. **[Fact]** Reform.news names Belspetsvneshtechnika as the Mirotvorets seller — C3. **[Assessment]** Control Fabric is real. Passport is export-oriented; end-customers beyond the BELPOL claim are not established.

## Observed employment

**[Uncertainty]** Named Belarusian Armed Forces UAS employment (exercise or campaign) is not established in sources used. Kvadro-M and UAVHELI types are industrial/public-product Facts, not unit holdings. The BELPOL India shipment is an export allegation, not Belarusian campaign employment.

## Relationships

- `attributed-to` — State Authority for Military Industry; Armed Forces of Belarus (as GOZ customer).
- `uses` — not established at type level for the Armed Forces.
- `related-to` — UAVHELI / KB Indela; Belspetsvneshtechnika (C3 on Mirotvorets); foreign GOZ/export markets (65 countries in 2025 — types not listed).

## LRRK turn-back

Moves **Control Fabric** and **Passport** (Goskomvoenprom + UAVHELI; alleged Mirotvorets export). **Sense / Act** exist as industrial products (Kvadro-M, peacekeeper). No Watch campaign and no typed force inventory. Lab is the 2026 GOZ share target.

## Forward indicators

- Raise: a MoD or Goskomvoenprom page listing UAS types adopted in 2025–2026; a named C-UAS; corroboration of Mirotvorets export from a second independent outlet.
- Lower: official denial that Kvadro-M is a fielded strike system; UAVHELI product line withdrawn without a successor.

## Sources

1. VPK.name (TSAMTO), 10 February 2026, https://vpk.name/en/1100618_the-board-of-the-state-military-industry-committee-of-the-republic-of-belarus-summed-up-the-results-of-work-in-2025-and-set-tasks-for-2026.html — B1–B2
2. www1.ru, 5 February 2026, https://www1.ru/en/news/2026/02/05/iuvelirnaia-tocnost-nazvany-xarakteristiki-belorusskogo-udarnogo-bpla-kvadro-m.html — C3
3. Reform.news, 23 January 2026, https://reform.news/en/belpol-india-purchased-100-mirotvorets-kamikaze-drones-from-belarus — C3
4. UAVHELI, About (fetched; page undated), https://uavheli.by/en/about/ — A1
5. President of the Republic of Belarus, State Authority for Military Industry, https://president.gov.by/en/statebodies/state-authority-for-military-industry — A1
6. United Nations, Member States list, https://www.un.org/en/about-us/member-states — A1

> **Collection integrity.** vpk.gov.by timed out; the February board text is used via TSAMTO/vpk.name, which says the original is on the committee site. Kvadro-M specs are a secondary cite of a press service, not the HTML original. BELPOL/Mirotvorets is single-source. Armed Forces typed UAS holdings, USV/UUV, and C-UAS are gaps. `not established` is not safety.

*LRRK — security assurance for systems that sense, move, and act.*

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