# Kinematic Threat Brief **LRRK Watch / Open-Source Intelligence** — Five current signals across systems that sense, move, and act. | Field | Value | | --- | --- | | Collection cutoff | 30 November 2013 | | Platform | Quiet Systems | | Data label | Open-source intelligence // LRRK analytic product | | Handling | Public-source material. Image rights require separate verification before publication. | ## Executive read ### BLUF November wrote the first FAA Unmanned Aircraft Systems Integration Roadmap: Huerta, 7 November, released a five-year, annually updated plan, a DOT Comprehensive Plan, and a test-site privacy policy — and forecast 7,500 small UAS in the NAS in five years if regulations are in place — while still promising to choose the six test sites by year-end. ### Key judgments 1. **[Assessment — high confidence]** Huerta remarks-as-prepared, 7 November: first UAS roadmap; policies, regulations, technologies, procedures for routine integration; 7,500 small UAS forecast in five years; almost all current public/research ops case-by-case; ~80 law-enforcement agencies under COA. 2. **[Assessment — high confidence]** Same speech: sense-and-avoid and lost-link are named as the integration problems; test-site privacy policy requires compliance with privacy/civil-liberties law, a public privacy policy, and a written data-use/retention plan. 3. **[Inference — moderate confidence]** The roadmap is a Control Fabric, not a rule: near-term integration remains exception-by-exception, the same path that produced the September Arctic ScanEagle COA. ### Analytic labels - **Fact** — verified reporting or primary record - **Assessment** — analytic judgment - **Inference** — reasoned but not directly observed - **Uncertainty** — unresolved information gap ### Source grades - **A1** — authoritative primary record / directly confirmed - **B1–B2** — generally reliable and corroborated - **C3** — useful but requires caution ## 01. FAA UAS Integration Roadmap — first five-year plan (7 November) *Event / publication dates: 7 November 2013, Huerta remarks as prepared* **Verified record — [Fact — A1]** “Today I would like to announce that the FAA has released its first Unmanned Aircraft Systems roadmap.” Developed with stakeholders; outlines safe integration; five-year outlook, annual updates. Addresses policies, regulations, technologies, procedures for routine integration. “Unmanned aircraft are inherently different from manned aircraft” — fist-sized low-altitude to 737-span above 60,000 feet; pilot on the ground. Forecast: 7,500 small UAS in the NAS in five years “provided the regulations are in place.” Two decades of limited public-use authorizations: firefighting, disaster relief, SAR, law enforcement, border patrol, military training, T&E. “About 80 law enforcement agencies operate unmanned aircraft now under special certificates of authorization.” Universities: weather, agriculture, industrial research. DOT Comprehensive Plan released the same day; all three documents (plan, roadmap, test-site privacy policy) “available today on our web site at FAA.GOV.” Partners: DoD, DHS, NASA, JPDO. Fetched: https://www.faa.gov/speeches/uas-roadmap **Threat landscape.** Civil Sense-Move integration is now a published plan with a 7,500-airframe forecast and no final small-UAS rule. **Intelligence assessment.** [Assessment — high confidence] The roadmap and companion documents were released 7 November. [Inference — moderate confidence] 2015 statutory deadline is implicit, not restated as a promise of a final rule this month. [Uncertainty] Roadmap PDF body not separately fetched. **Opportunity.** The 74-page roadmap PDF. **LRRK relevance.** Control Fabric / Watch / Passport. Record: 7 November, first roadmap, 7,500, 80 LE COAs, three documents. **Confidence.** High on the speech; moderate on unfetched PDF particulars. ## 02. Lost-link and sense-and-avoid named as the integration problems *Event / publication dates: 7 November 2013* **Verified record — [Fact — A1]** Huerta: “we need to make sure that unmanned aircraft sense and avoid other aircraft, and that they operate safely if they lose the link to their pilot.” That is why test data matter. Fetched: https://www.faa.gov/speeches/uas-roadmap **Threat landscape.** The same C2 failure mode as Fire Scout UCARS (March 2012) and Phantom failsafe RTH (January 2013) is now an FAA integration requirement. **Intelligence assessment.** [Assessment — high confidence] SAA and lost-link are official gates. [Uncertainty] Technical standards not in the speech. **Opportunity.** The roadmap’s SAA/lost-link chapters. **LRRK relevance.** Kestrel / Control Fabric / Sense-Move-Act. **Confidence.** High. ## 03. Test-site privacy policy — public policy plus data-retention plan *Event / publication dates: 7 November 2013* **Verified record — [Fact — A1]** “Today, we are also releasing the privacy policy that will apply to the UAS test sites.” Operators must comply with local, state and federal privacy and civil-liberties laws; test-site operators must create a public privacy policy; anyone operating at the sites must have a written plan for how they will use and retain test data. Broader interagency work on privacy beyond the sites. Six sites “by the end of the year.” Fetched: https://www.faa.gov/speeches/uas-roadmap **Threat landscape.** Privacy is now a published test-site rule, the issue that delayed naming in November 2012. **Intelligence assessment.** [Assessment — high confidence] The policy was released. [Inference — moderate confidence] Year-end site names are still a promise. [Uncertainty] Policy PDF not separately fetched. **Opportunity.** The privacy-policy PDF and the six names when they drop. **LRRK relevance.** Control Fabric / Watch. **Confidence.** High on release; moderate on year-end names. ## 04. Arctic ScanEagle restated as the only commercial authorization *Event / publication dates: September flight; 7 November speech* **Verified record — [Fact — A1]** 36 minutes, ConocoPhillips, only Arctic commercial area to date. Fetched: https://www.faa.gov/speeches/uas-roadmap **Threat landscape.** Commercial Sense still a one-off. **Intelligence assessment.** [Assessment — high confidence] No additional commercial area named in November. [Uncertainty] November follow-on flights not fetched. **Opportunity.** A second commercial COA. **LRRK relevance.** Control Fabric / Passport. **Confidence.** High. ## 05. Extra-theater Act — NDU/PPG still the last presidential doctrine *Event / publication dates: 23 May 2013* **Verified record — [Fact — A1]** Near-certainty; continuing and imminent. Fetched: https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/the-press-office/2013/05/23/remarks-president-national-defense-university **Threat landscape.** Civil roadmap and extra-theater kill chain remain separate Control Fabrics. **Intelligence assessment.** [Assessment — high confidence] No November replacement CT speech. [Uncertainty] November strikes not fetched. **Opportunity.** A November on-record strike. **LRRK relevance.** Control Fabric / Watch. **Confidence.** High on doctrine. ## Forward indicators Ranked watchlist as of the collection cutoff (what a Watch desk would have monitored next). 1. Six test-site names (promised by year-end). 2. Small-UAS NPRM. 3. Next commercial COA beyond the Arctic. 4. Amazon or other logistics UAS announcement (rumor, not Fact). 5. Official extra-theater November–December table. > **Collection integrity.** Huerta 7 November fetched in full. Roadmap/Comprehensive Plan/privacy PDFs not separately fetched — speech is the A1. NDU is dated carry-forward. No leak dumps. No Amazon announcement this month (that is 1 December). *LRRK — security assurance for systems that sense, move, and act.*

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