LC-Ge · Kinematic Capability Profiles

Kinematic Capability Profile

# Kinematic Capability Profile

**LRRK Watch / Nation-state actor profile** — STIX 2.1 threat-actor fields applied to systems that sense, move, and act.

| Field | Value |
| --- | --- |
| Collection cutoff | 16 June 2025 |
| Platform | Quiet Systems |
| Data label | Open-source intelligence // LRRK analytic product |
| Handling | Public-source material. Image rights require separate verification before publication. |
| Actor | United Kingdom |
| Short name | GB |
| UN membership | Member |
| Profile depth | documented |

## Executive read

### BLUF

The RAF has entered a certified MQ-9B-based Protector RG Mk1 into service as the UK's first remotely piloted air system authorised for UK airspace, replacing Reaper on the Sense/Act path while remaining short of formal IOC on later parliamentary answers not used as the cutoff source.

### Key judgments

1. **[Assessment — High confidence]** RAF announced Protector RG Mk1 entered service on 16 June 2025 after test and evaluation by 56 Squadron, with 31 Squadron support, and a Waddington–Marham flight in UK airspace (RAF).
2. **[Fact]** Protector is based on GA-ASI MQ-9B SkyGuardian, with UK weapons path (Brimstone 3A, Paveway IV) described on the RAF aircraft page.
3. **[Uncertainty]** Project Corvus / Tekever AR5 as Watchkeeper replacement was widely reported in 2026 but those pages were not fetched for this filing and the types are unnamed here.

### Analytic labels

- **Fact** — verified reporting or primary record
- **Assessment** — analytic judgment
- **Inference** — reasoned but not directly observed
- **Uncertainty** — unresolved information gap

### Source grades

- **A1** — authoritative primary record / directly confirmed
- **B1–B2** — generally reliable and corroborated
- **C3** — useful but requires caution

## Identity

STIX 2.1 Identity + Threat Actor. Values from the open vocabularies only.

| STIX field | Value |
| --- | --- |
| name | United Kingdom |
| aliases | UK; Britain; United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland |
| identity_class | organization |
| threat_actor_types | nation-state |
| roles | director, sponsor |
| resource_level | nation-state |
| sophistication | advanced |
| primary_motivation | organizational-gain |
| secondary_motivations | dominance |
| goals | Certified RPAS in UK and allied airspace; ISTAR and strike interoperable with NATO and the United States |

## Intent and targeting

**[Fact]** RAF: Protector supports surveillance, search and rescue, and armed operations alongside NATO and U.S. forces; potential MACA, maritime surveillance, and SAR. Based at RAF Waddington with UK-remote operation and up to two additional global locations. Named theatre in the GA-ASI/FOI cluster includes Operation SHADER — the FOI PDF was fetched in search but the RAF entry-into-service page is the cutoff source; SHADER employment is **Uncertainty** unless taken from the RAF page (it is not).

## Capability — Sense

**[Fact]** RAF aircraft page: sensors for full-motion video, infrared, SAR, and ground target tracking; endurance over 40 hours on that page / over 30 hours and 40,000 ft on the entry-into-service story. First certified RPAS authorised to fly in UK airspace.

## Capability — Move

**[Fact]** First air vehicle delivered September 2023; four AVs in the UK and six in the USA for test as of 16 June 2025; all expected deliveries in 2025. Certifiable Ground Control Stations and simulators installed at Waddington. Transition from Reaper planned later in 2025.

## Capability — Act

**[Fact]** RAF lists MBDA Brimstone 3A and Raytheon UK Paveway IV as UK-specific weapon payloads. Status: designed and in service as an armed-capable RPAS. No employment how-to.

## Inventory

| Domain | Status | Named systems (sourced) | Notes |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Air UAS | documented | Protector RG Mk1 (MQ-9B SkyGuardian); Reaper (legacy, in transition) | Watchkeeper / AR5 not named — pages not fetched. |
| Surface USV | not established | | |
| Subsurface UUV / ROV | not established | | |
| C-UAS | not established | | |

## Industrial base and supply chain

**[Fact]** GA-ASI air vehicle; RAF/MDE UK payload and certification path (Military Type Certificate noted on GA-ASI Protector page, fetched). Passport is STANAG 4671 / UK DEF STAN 00-970 certification — the Control Fabric that lets Protector fly in civil airspace.

## Observed employment

**[Fact]** UK airspace test and evaluation, including Waddington to Marham. Overseas operational employment is not established on the 16 June 2025 RAF page.

## Relationships

- `attributed-to` United Kingdom (Identity, `organization`)
- `uses` GA-ASI Protector / MQ-9B
- `related-to` United States as OEM and interoperability partner
- `related-to` NATO as the stated tactical-interoperability object

## LRRK turn-back

Sense and Act sit on Protector. Passport is the civil-airspace certificate. Watch should treat IOC declaration (later parliamentary answers) as a separate indicator not used as cutoff. No Campaign object on the fetched RAF page.

## Forward indicators

Raise: fetched MoD IOC date; a fetched Corvus/AR5 contract page that would fill the Army ISTAR gap. Lower: further IOC slip without operational flying. Reclassify USV when a Royal Navy uncrewed type is fetched.

## Sources

1. Royal Air Force, 16 June 2025, https://www.raf.mod.uk/news/articles/protector-enters-service-with-royal-air-force/ — A1
2. Royal Air Force, Protector RG Mk 1 aircraft page, https://www.raf.mod.uk/aircraft/current-aircraft/protector-rg-mk-1-mq-9b11/ — A1
3. GA-ASI, Protector RG Mk1, https://www.ga-asi.com/protector-rg-mk1/ — A1

> **Collection integrity.** FlightGlobal/Janes Corvus and UK Defence Journal IOC answers were not fetched. Watchkeeper replacement and RN USVs remain gaps. Collection cutoff is the RAF entry-into-service date, not later unfetched parliamentary answers.

*LRRK — security assurance for systems that sense, move, and act.*

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