LC-Ge · Kinematic Capability Profiles

Kinematic Capability Profile

# Kinematic Capability Profile

**LRRK Watch / Nation-state actor profile** — STIX 2.1 threat-actor fields applied to systems that sense, move, and act.

| Field | Value |
| --- | --- |
| Collection cutoff | 2 April 2026 |
| Platform | Quiet Systems |
| Data label | Open-source intelligence // LRRK analytic product |
| Handling | Public-source material. Image rights require separate verification before publication. |
| Actor | Sweden |
| Short name | SE |
| UN membership | Member |
| Profile depth | documented |

## Executive read

### BLUF

Stockholm is buying a layered C-UAS fabric (GUTE II) while funding unnamed loitering, reconnaissance, electronic-warfare, and maritime unmanned systems through 2028 — Act-as-counter and a still-unnamed Sense/Move buy.

### Key judgments

1. **[Assessment — High confidence]** On 2 April 2026 the government presented FMV contracts worth SEK 8.7 billion under the GUTE II designation, including Saab G1X sensors, Trackfire 30 mm, Tridon Mk2 40 mm, and electronic-warfare effectors, with deliveries 2027–2028.
2. **[Assessment — High confidence]** Saab matching 2 April 2026 release values its mobile modular C-UAS order at approximately SEK 2.6 billion for Swedish Armed Forces and civil-infrastructure protection.
3. **[Uncertainty]** The 12 January 2026 opportunity-purchase package (more than SEK 4 billion for unmanned systems, 2026–2028 deliveries) names mission classes — loitering munitions, reconnaissance drones, airborne EW, surface and subsurface maritime drones — but no airframe types.

### Analytic labels

- **Fact** — verified reporting or primary record
- **Assessment** — analytic judgment
- **Inference** — reasoned but not directly observed
- **Uncertainty** — unresolved information gap

### Source grades

- **A1** — authoritative primary record / directly confirmed
- **B1–B2** — generally reliable and corroborated
- **C3** — useful but requires caution

## Identity

STIX 2.1 Identity + Threat Actor. Values from the open vocabularies only.

| STIX field | Value |
| --- | --- |
| name | Sweden |
| aliases | Sverige / Swedish Armed Forces / Forsvarsmakten / FMV |
| identity_class | organization |
| threat_actor_types | nation-state |
| roles | sponsor, director |
| resource_level | nation-state |
| sophistication | advanced |
| primary_motivation | organizational-gain |
| secondary_motivations | ideology |
| goals | Sourced: equip combat units with unmanned systems; field GUTE II C-UAS for forces and critical infrastructure. Uncertainty: named air/maritime types in the 2026-2028 buy. |

## Intent and targeting

**[Fact]** Defence Minister Jonson (January 2026): unmanned systems and space situational awareness are decisive in modern warfare; the buy is to strengthen operational capability, combat-unit endurance, and work with allies, citing Ukraine lessons. **[Fact]** April 2026: GUTE II is for hostile drones and other low threats including helicopters, across peace-to-war, for military units and infrastructure such as nuclear plants, rail hubs, and cities. **[Assessment]** Intent is territorial Sense plus Act-as-C-UAS plus a still-untyped combat-unit unmanned suite, not a sourced expeditionary MALE campaign.

## Capability — Sense

**[Fact]** GUTE II contracts include command-and-control/integration plus active and passive sensors such as Saab G1X. **[Fact]** The January package funds reconnaissance drones for direct field intelligence, often paired with loitering munitions or artillery, and airborne remote-controlled EW sensors that can sit on ships or in ground units. **[Uncertainty]** In-service named reconnaissance airframe (type, sensor suite, quantity) is not established in sources used.

## Capability — Move

**[Fact]** GUTE II is modular: vehicle-mounted or stationary, intended to move rapidly over longer distances. **[Fact]** Planned maritime drones operate above and below the surface for mine search, bottom survey, and wide-area sea surveillance. **[Assessment]** Move is mobile C-UAS plus a 2026-2028 unmanned delivery window, not a named runway MALE fleet. **[Uncertainty]** Launch/recovery class of the reconnaissance and loitering buys is not named.

## Capability — Act

**[Fact]** GUTE II effectors named by the government: Trackfire weapon station with 30 mm cannon; truck-mounted Tridon Mk2 with 40 mm cannon; advanced electronic-warfare systems; ammunition. **[Fact]** January package: patrullrobot (loitering munition class) brought forward five to six years via opportunity purchases. **[Assessment]** Act is layered C-UAS plus planned one-way attack. Status only. **[Uncertainty]** Named loitering type is not established.

## Inventory

| Domain | Status | Named systems (sourced) | Notes |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Air UAS | documented | reconnaissance drones; loitering munitions (types not named) | SEK 4+ billion class buy; deliveries 2026-2028 |
| Surface USV | documented | maritime surface drones (types not named) | Wide-area sea surveillance class |
| Subsurface UUV / ROV | documented | underwater drones (types not named) | Mine search and bottom survey |
| C-UAS | documented | GUTE II (Saab G1X; Trackfire 30 mm; Tridon Mk2 40 mm; EW) | SEK 8.7 billion package; Saab share ~SEK 2.6 billion |

## Industrial base and supply chain

**[Fact]** Prime path is national: FMV contracts with Saab and BAE Systems Bofors; additional vehicle and ammunition agreements with SISU and Nammo. **[Fact]** Saab is headquartered in Sweden and is developing/deploying the C-UAS with the Armed Forces and FMV. **[Assessment]** Control Fabric is domestic C-UAS plus an untyped unmanned buy. Passport is Saab/Bofors industrial, not a named export campaign in sources used.

## Observed employment

**[Fact]** GUTE II deliveries and initial unit fielding of qualified C-UAS and air-defence units are scheduled 2027-2028; territorial air-defence companies are to be trained in coming years. **[Uncertainty]** Named in-service tactical UAV employment is not established. The January unmanned types are planned, not fielded in the releases used.

## Relationships

- `attributed-to` — Swedish Armed Forces; FMV; Government of Sweden.
- `uses` — GUTE II / Saab C-UAS (on contract).
- `related-to` — Saab; BAE Systems Bofors; SISU; Nammo; NATO (ally-interoperability language).

## LRRK turn-back

Moves **Act** (GUTE II C-UAS and planned loitering), **Sense / Move** (unnamed recce and maritime drones), **Control Fabric** (Saab/FMV), and **Watch** (infrastructure C-UAS). No Campaign object. Lab is the unnamed 2026-2028 airframe list.

## Forward indicators

- Raise: a named reconnaissance or loitering type on an FMV or Forsvarsmakten page; first GUTE II unit IOC; a named Navy USV/UUV.
- Lower: GUTE II delivery slip past 2028; unmanned opportunity-purchase cancelled without a successor.

## Sources

1. Regeringen.se, 2 April 2026, https://www.regeringen.se/pressmeddelanden/2026/04/luftvarnsavtal-pa-87-miljarder-starker-sveriges-anti-dronarformaga/ — A1
2. Saab, 2 April 2026, https://www.saab.com/newsroom/press-releases/2026/saab-receives-order-for-counter-unmanned-aerial-system-from-sweden — A1
3. Regeringen.se, 12 January 2026, https://regeringen.se/pressmeddelanden/2026/01/over-53-miljarder-kronor-till-bred-dronar--och-rymdformaga/ — A1
4. United Nations, Member States list, https://www.un.org/en/about-us/member-states — A1

> **Collection integrity.** government.se English January release was Cloudflare-blocked; the Swedish Regeringen.se text was fetched. In-service named air UAS (historical UAV 03-class types) were not attached to a current official URL and are unnamed here. Maritime and loitering cells are documented as programmes, not as typed inventories. `not established` is a gap.

*LRRK — security assurance for systems that sense, move, and act.*

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