LC-Ge · Kinematic Capability Profiles

Kinematic Capability Profile

# Kinematic Capability Profile

**LRRK Watch / Nation-state actor profile** — STIX 2.1 threat-actor fields applied to systems that sense, move, and act.

| Field | Value |
| --- | --- |
| Collection cutoff | 10 November 2025 |
| Platform | Quiet Systems |
| Data label | Open-source intelligence // LRRK analytic product |
| Handling | Public-source material. Image rights require separate verification before publication. |
| Actor | Switzerland |
| Short name | CH |
| UN membership | Member |
| Profile depth | documented |

## Executive read

### BLUF

Switzerland’s named kinematic object is ADS 15 (Elbit reconnaissance UAS) — Sense with reduced functions after a 10 November 2025 contract addendum.

### Key judgments

1. **[Assessment — High confidence]** armasuisse delivered the third of six ADS 15 systems to the Swiss Air Force on 19 September 2025; all six are planned by end-2026.
2. **[Assessment — High confidence]** DDPS dropped DAA (RUAG), GPS-independent take-off/landing, and de-icing; Elbit will cover service-contract fixed costs 2024–2032.
3. **[Inference — Moderate confidence]** MAA operating caveats (emergency parachute, minimum altitude, avoid long dwell over dense population) will cap Move until design-conformance documentation is complete.

### Analytic labels

- **Fact** — verified reporting or primary record
- **Assessment** — analytic judgment
- **Inference** — reasoned but not directly observed
- **Uncertainty** — unresolved information gap

### Source grades

- **A1** — authoritative primary record / directly confirmed
- **B1–B2** — generally reliable and corroborated
- **C3** — useful but requires caution

## Identity

STIX 2.1 Identity + Threat Actor. Values from the open vocabularies only.

| STIX field | Value |
| --- | --- |
| name | Switzerland |
| aliases | Schweiz / Suisse / Svizzera / Swiss Armed Forces / DDPS / armasuisse |
| identity_class | organization |
| threat_actor_types | nation-state |
| roles | sponsor / director |
| resource_level | nation-state |
| sophistication | advanced |
| primary_motivation | organizational-gain |
| secondary_motivations | ideology |
| goals | Sourced: close an airborne ISR and situational-awareness gap; support civilian authorities on request. Uncertainty: armed UAS policy. |


## Intent and targeting

**[Fact]** armasuisse (2 October 2025): ADS 15 contributes along the Armed Forces performance profile, including reconnaissance of troops, locations, and areas without troops; available on request to rescue services, cantonal staffs, FOCBS, FIS, and fedpol; disaster-site monitoring. **[Assessment]** Intent is persistent national ISR, not a sourced strike campaign.

## Capability — Sense

**[Fact]** Official purpose is airborne intelligence and situational awareness with long endurance remaining after the function cuts. **[Uncertainty]** Named SAR/SIGINT payloads are not in the addendum text.

## Capability — Move

**[Fact]** Six systems; third delivered 19 September 2025. **[Fact]** Three functionalities dropped: automatic DAA, GPS-independent take-off/landing, de-icing. **[Assessment]** Move is reduced relative to the original contract. **[Uncertainty]** Civil-airspace integration without DAA remains a certification problem (VBS 4 September 2025 German release, not fully extracted here).

## Capability — Act

**[Uncertainty]** ADS 15 is a reconnaissance system. C-UAS not established in sources used.

## Inventory

| Domain | Status | Named systems (sourced) | Notes |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Air UAS | documented | ADS 15 (Elbit) | 3 of 6 delivered by 19 September 2025 |
| Surface USV | not established |  | Collection gap |
| Subsurface UUV / ROV | not established |  | Collection gap |
| C-UAS | not established |  | Collection gap |

## Industrial base and supply chain

**[Fact]** Manufacturer Elbit Systems Ltd; RUAG was to develop DAA and did not meet milestones; service support to be provided in Switzerland. **[Assessment]** Passport is Israeli airframe plus Swiss in-country support. **[Uncertainty]** Alternative Swiss UAS industry (beyond RUAG’s failed DAA) is not established as a serial military line.

## Observed employment

**[Fact]** Delivery to the Air Force for operation and maintenance; operationalisation successive through 2026. **[Uncertainty]** Routine ISR tasking hours are not published in the releases used.

## Relationships

- `attributed-to` — DDPS / armasuisse / Swiss Air Force.
- `uses` — Elbit ADS 15.
- `related-to` — RUAG (DAA shortfall); FOCBS, FIS, fedpol as potential civil users.

## LRRK turn-back

Moves **Sense / Move**, **Watch** (national ISR gap-fill), and **Passport** (Elbit). Lab is the reduced-function close-out. No Act.

## Forward indicators

- Raise: sixth air vehicle; unrestricted MAA approval; a C-UAS program.
- Lower: further function cuts or a fleet grounding.
- Reclassify: not indicated while ADS 15 is named.

## Sources

Numbered. Named outlet, date, URL, grade. Dead or unverified links are a form defect.

1. armasuisse, 2 October 2025, https://www.ar.admin.ch/en/newnsb/ZfY1cF6QLfSGSDScPV_NV — A1
2. DDPS / VBS, 10 November 2025, https://www.vbs.admin.ch/en/newnsb/6ETj9yeVMhSm — A1
3. United Nations, Member States list, https://www.un.org/en/about-us/member-states — A1

> **Collection integrity.** Defense Mirror Hermes 900 HFE synonym was not required; official name is ADS 15. `not established` for USV/UUV/C-UAS is a gap.

*LRRK — security assurance for systems that sense, move, and act.*

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