LC-Ge · Kinematic Capability Profiles

Kinematic Capability Profile

# Kinematic Capability Profile

**LRRK Watch / Nation-state actor profile** — STIX 2.1 threat-actor fields applied to systems that sense, move, and act.

| Field | Value |
| --- | --- |
| Collection cutoff | 22 October 2025 |
| Platform | Quiet Systems |
| Data label | Open-source intelligence // LRRK analytic product |
| Handling | Public-source material. Image rights require separate verification before publication. |
| Actor | Ukraine |
| Short name | UA |
| UN membership | Member |
| Profile depth | documented |

## Executive read

### BLUF

Ukraine has turned an SBU-built uncrewed surface vessel (Sea Baby) from a one-way Black Sea striker into a reusable, longer-range Act platform that public officials credit with forcing the Russian fleet to relocate — a Move/Act case that now sits at the centre of the wartime Campaign.

### Key judgments

1. **[Assessment — High confidence]** SBU unveiled an upgraded Sea Baby in October 2025 with claimed 1,500 km range and 2,000 kg payload, demonstrated to AP with rocket and gun fits (C4ISRNET/AP, 22 October 2025).
2. **[Assessment — High confidence]** SBU credits sea-drone strikes on 11 Russian vessels and pressure that moved the main base from Sevastopol to Novorossiysk.
3. **[Uncertainty]** Magura and named air one-way types (FP-1 and others) were not on the fetched Sea Baby page and stay unnamed in this filing.

### Analytic labels

- **Fact** — verified reporting or primary record
- **Assessment** — analytic judgment
- **Inference** — reasoned but not directly observed
- **Uncertainty** — unresolved information gap

### Source grades

- **A1** — authoritative primary record / directly confirmed
- **B1–B2** — generally reliable and corroborated
- **C3** — useful but requires caution

## Identity

STIX 2.1 Identity + Threat Actor. Values from the open vocabularies only.

| STIX field | Value |
| --- | --- |
| name | Ukraine |
| aliases | Ukraine |
| identity_class | organization |
| threat_actor_types | nation-state |
| roles | director, agent |
| resource_level | nation-state |
| sophistication | expert |
| primary_motivation | organizational-gain |
| secondary_motivations | ideology |
| goals | Deny the Russian Black Sea Fleet freedom of action; hold a reusable naval-drone Act option; raise interceptor cost for Geran salvos (air C-UAS is adjacent, not fetched here) |

## Intent and targeting

**[Fact]** AP: SBU says Sea Baby can now operate anywhere in the Black Sea, carry heavier weapons, and use AI for targeting. Brig. Gen. Ivan Lukashevych: evolution from single-use strike craft to a reusable multipurpose platform. Named objects: Russian shipping, infrastructure, Crimean Bridge underwater supports, and the fleet basing shift.

## Capability — Sense

**[Fact]** Craft are operated remotely from a mobile van with banks of screens (AP). AI-assisted friend-or-foe targeting is claimed. **[Uncertainty]** Organic EO/IR or AIS sensor names are not established.

## Capability — Move

**[Fact]** SBU: range expanded from 1,000 km to 1,500 km. **[Fact]** Remote control from a mobile ground station; location of the 17 October 2025 demonstration withheld. Launch-and-recovery of the reusable generation is shown by a test run on the water.

## Capability — Act

**[Fact]** Payload up to 2,000 kg claimed. Variants shown with a multiple-rocket launcher and a stabilized machine-gun turret. Claimed ability to launch small aerial attack drones and to use multilayered self-destruct to prevent capture. Status only; no employment procedure.

## Inventory

| Domain | Status | Named systems (sourced) | Notes |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Air UAS | not established | | Aerial one-way types not named on the fetched page. |
| Surface USV | documented | Sea Baby | SBU / AP demonstration October 2025. |
| Subsurface UUV / ROV | not established | | Later UUV-on-submarine claims were not on this fetched page. |
| C-UAS | not established | | |

## Industrial base and supply chain

**[Fact]** Developed and operated by the Security Service of Ukraine; partially funded by public donations through a state-run initiative and coordinated with military and political leadership (AP). Control Fabric is wartime indigenous production under secrecy.

## Observed employment

**[Fact]** SBU: various iterations struck 11 Russian vessels including frigates and missile carriers; contributed to attacks on the Crimean Bridge, including underwater supports. **[Fact]** Russian navy main base relocated from Sevastopol to Novorossiysk — SBU attribution; treat as B1–B2.

## Relationships

- `attributed-to` Ukraine (Identity, `organization`)
- `uses` SBU Sea Baby programme
- `related-to` Russia as the employment object

## LRRK turn-back

Campaign is the Black Sea USV war. Move and Act sit on Sea Baby range/payload growth. Watch should treat the Sevastopol-to-Novorossiysk shift as a fleet-level effect, not a single-boat anecdote. Passport opens only if a controlled-export announcement is fetched (search-only in 2025–26; not used).

## Forward indicators

Raise: a fetched SBU or GUR page naming Magura or a UUV type; export contract. Lower: a long gap in verified USV strikes. Reclassify Air UAS when a named one-way type is fetched from a Ukrainian official page.

## Sources

1. Associated Press via C4ISRNET, 22 October 2025, https://www.c4isrnet.com/global/europe/2025/10/22/ukraine-unveils-upgraded-sea-drone-for-black-sea-strike-missions/ — B1–B2
2. CSIS / Janes / TWZ on Russian Geran employment (context for the opposing Act; see RU filing) — B1–B2

> **Collection integrity.** Reuters Sea Baby (same day) returned HTTP 401 and was dropped; AP text on C4ISRNET was used instead. Magura, FP-1, and UUV-on-submarine claims were not on the fetched page. Air UAS remains a gap despite obvious wartime use — that is collection, not a finding of absence.

*LRRK — security assurance for systems that sense, move, and act.*

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