LC-Ge · Kinematic Capability Profiles

Kinematic Capability Profile

# Kinematic Capability Profile

**LRRK Watch / Nation-state actor profile** — STIX 2.1 threat-actor fields applied to systems that sense, move, and act.

| Field | Value |
| --- | --- |
| Collection cutoff | 22 April 2026 |
| Platform | Quiet Systems |
| Data label | Open-source intelligence // LRRK analytic product |
| Handling | Public-source material. Image rights require separate verification before publication. |
| Actor | Lithuania |
| Short name | LT |
| UN membership | Member |
| Profile depth | documented |

## Executive read

### BLUF

Lithuania is piloting a US interceptor-drone C-UAS (Merops AS-3 Surveyor) after airspace incidents — Act as a test battery, not a named MALE fleet.

### Key judgments

1. **[Assessment — High confidence]** The government approved a fast-track pilot buy of Merops AS-3 Surveyor from Perennial Autonomy, including 48 non-lethal interceptor UAVs (24 thermal-seeker, 24 RF-seeker) plus radar integration.
2. **[Assessment — Moderate confidence]** Official justification cites Russian and Ukrainian drones in Lithuanian airspace and smuggling balloons.
3. **[Inference — Moderate confidence]** The pilot is meant to measure fit into the national air-defence system before a larger buy.

### Analytic labels

- **Fact** — verified reporting or primary record
- **Assessment** — analytic judgment
- **Inference** — reasoned but not directly observed
- **Uncertainty** — unresolved information gap

### Source grades

- **A1** — authoritative primary record / directly confirmed
- **B1–B2** — generally reliable and corroborated
- **C3** — useful but requires caution

## Identity

STIX 2.1 Identity + Threat Actor. Values from the open vocabularies only.

| STIX field | Value |
| --- | --- |
| name | Lithuania |
| aliases | Lietuva / Ministry of National Defence / Lithuanian Armed Forces |
| identity_class | organization |
| threat_actor_types | nation-state |
| roles | sponsor / director |
| resource_level | nation-state |
| sophistication | intermediate |
| primary_motivation | organizational-gain |
| secondary_motivations | ideology |
| goals | Sourced: evaluate interceptor C-UAS after airspace violations. Uncertainty: organic ISR UAS types. |


## Intent and targeting

**[Fact]** Defence Minister Robertas Kaunas: only a pilot batch to evaluate integration; ministry document says no analogous Ukraine-tested interceptor was available via ordinary tender. **[Assessment]** Intent is homeland C-UAS, not a sourced strike UAS program.

## Capability — Sense

**[Fact]** System described as combining radars, optical sensors, AI, and interceptor drones. **[Uncertainty]** Which Lithuanian radars are being integrated is not established.

## Capability — Move

**[Fact]** 48 interceptor UAVs without warheads, with training parachutes. **[Assessment]** Move is short-range interceptor, training configuration first. **[Uncertainty]** Organic ISR UAS names are not established.

## Capability — Act

**[Fact]** Non-lethal interceptors in the pilot (no warheads). **[Assessment]** Act is C-UAS evaluation, not a lethal inventory Fact. **[Uncertainty]** Follow-on lethal configuration is not established.

## Inventory

| Domain | Status | Named systems (sourced) | Notes |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Air UAS | documented | Merops AS-3 Surveyor interceptors | Pilot batch; training/non-lethal |
| Surface USV | not established |  | Collection gap |
| Subsurface UUV / ROV | not established |  | Collection gap |
| C-UAS | documented | Merops AS-3 Surveyor | Fast-track government approval |

## Industrial base and supply chain

**[Fact]** US manufacturer Perennial Autonomy. **[Assessment]** Passport is a US import under a national-security tender exemption. **[Uncertainty]** Lithuanian industry content is not established.

## Observed employment

**[Uncertainty]** Approval is not a public intercept. Incidents that justified the buy are cited by the ministry, not reconstructed here.

## Relationships

- `attributed-to` — Government of Lithuania / Defence Materiel Agency.
- `uses` — Perennial Autonomy Merops AS-3 Surveyor (pilot).
- `related-to` — United States; Poland and US as other Merops customers in trade reporting.

## LRRK turn-back

Moves **Act** (C-UAS pilot), **Watch**, and **Passport**. No Control Fabric factory object.

## Forward indicators

- Raise: a full-rate buy; a named ISR type; a public successful intercept.
- Lower: pilot deemed a poor fit.
- Reclassify: remains documented while Merops is named.

## Sources

Numbered. Named outlet, date, URL, grade. Dead or unverified links are a form defect.

1. LRT English, Lithuanian government Merops pilot approval, https://www.lrt.lt/en/news-in-english/19/2906360/lithuanian-govt-greenlights-pilot-buy-of-us-interceptor-drones — A1
2. Defence Blog, 22 April 2026, https://defence-blog.com/lithuania-joins-u-s-and-poland-in-buying-merops-interceptor-drones/ — B1–B2
3. United Nations, Member States list, https://www.un.org/en/about-us/member-states — A1

> **Collection integrity.** LRT page did not expose a byline date in the extracted body; cutoff follows the dated Defence Blog corroboration (22 April 2026). ISR UAS names remain a gap. `not established` is not safety.

*LRRK — security assurance for systems that sense, move, and act.*

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