LC-1 · Kinematic Threat Briefs

Kinematic Threat Brief

# Kinematic Threat Brief

**LRRK Watch / Open-Source Intelligence** — Five current signals across systems that sense, move, and act.

| Field | Value |
| --- | --- |
| Collection cutoff | 30 June 2018 |
| Platform | Quiet Systems |
| Data label | Open-source intelligence // LRRK analytic product |
| Handling | Public-source material. Image rights require separate verification before publication. |

## Executive read

### BLUF

June is the month the May COTS UAS freeze became a public Control Fabric: sUAS News posted the FOUO memo that suspends commercial-off-the-shelf UAS purchase and use across DoD until a cyber-risk strategy exists — converting the 2017 Army DJI ban into a department-wide presumption of untrust.

### Key judgments

1. **[Assessment — high confidence]** The memo published 7 June quotes the 14 May IG finding and orders an immediate suspension of COTS UAS purchase for operational use and of COTS UAS use until mitigations are fielded, with case-by-case exemptions held at the memo's approval authority.
2. **[Assessment — high confidence]** Named POCs — USD(A&S) Ellen Lord and DoD CIO Dana Deasy — place the freeze at acquisition-and-information-security level, not aviation-safety level alone.
3. **[Inference — moderate confidence]** Civil FAA LAANC/IPP expansion and military COTS prohibition are now opposite-direction Control Fabrics in the same quarter: more authorized civil Act, less trusted commercial Sense in uniform.

### Analytic labels

- **Fact** — verified reporting or primary record
- **Assessment** — analytic judgment
- **Inference** — reasoned but not directly observed
- **Uncertainty** — unresolved information gap

### Source grades

- **A1** — authoritative primary record / directly confirmed
- **B1–B2** — generally reliable and corroborated
- **C3** — useful but requires caution

## 01. DoD COTS UAS freeze is now a fetched public text

*Event / publication dates: IG 14 May 2018; memo ~23 May 2018; sUAS News 7 June 2018*

**Verified record — [Fact — B1]** sUAS News posted the memo body: "On May 14, 2018 the DoD Inspector General found that DoD has not implemented an adequate process to access [sic] cybersecurity risks associated with using commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS)." Immediate suspend of COTS UAS purchases for operational use until a strategy exists; suspend use until a solution to known cybersecurity risks is identified and fielded; exemptions case-by-case; POCs Lord and Deasy. Fetched: https://www.suasnews.com/2018/06/us-dod-pulls-the-plug-on-cots-drones/

**Threat landscape.** Operational units that relied on COTS quads for route clearance, EOD standoff, or garrison mapping lose a Sense layer unless an exemption is granted. The trust failure is the missing assessment process, not a published 0-day.

**Intelligence assessment.** [Assessment — high confidence] The freeze text is public in June. [Inference — moderate confidence] Implementation will be uneven across services. [Uncertainty] Number of aircraft grounded in June not fetched.

**Opportunity.** A service implementing instruction.

**LRRK relevance.** Control Fabric / Passport / Watch.

**Confidence.** High on text; low on fleet impact numbers.

## 02. From DJI-only to brand-agnostic COTS

*Event / publication dates: Army 2 August 2017; department freeze May/June 2018*

**Verified record — [Fact — B1]** Defense One's 2017 Anderson memo was DJI-specific (apps, batteries, storage media, components, 300+ AWRs). The June-published DoD memo is COTS-generic. Fetched: https://www.defenseone.com/technology/2017/08/us-army-just-ordered-soldiers-stop-using-drones-chinas-dji/139999/ and https://www.suasnews.com/2018/06/us-dod-pulls-the-plug-on-cots-drones/

**Threat landscape.** A U.S.-assembled quad with a Chinese radio or camera is still in the "COTS" bucket the memo freezes. Component origin is now the Passport problem.

**Intelligence assessment.** [Assessment — high confidence] Scope widened. [Inference — high confidence] "Buy American COTS" is not, on the fetched text, an automatic exemption. [Uncertainty] Legal definition of COTS UAS in the memo is not further defined in the posted extract.

**Opportunity.** The full IG report's scope language.

**LRRK relevance.** Passport / Control Fabric. Record component, not brand only.

**Confidence.** High on the widening.

## 03. IPP and LAANC continue opposite the freeze

*Event / publication dates: IPP selectees 9 May 2018; LAANC monthly waves*

**Verified record — [Fact — A1/B1]** DOT's ten IPP jurisdictions (Choctaw Nation, San Diego, Virginia Tech/CIT, Kansas, Lee County, Memphis-Shelby, North Carolina, North Dakota, Reno, Alaska-Fairbanks) stand. LAANC regional waves continue toward a September nationwide beta. Fetched: https://www.transportation.gov/briefing-room/dot3419 and https://www.aviationtoday.com/2018/09/20/laanc-available-around-us/

**Threat landscape.** The same commercial airframes DoD will not fly are being authorized into controlled civil airspace in seconds.

**Intelligence assessment.** [Assessment — high confidence] Civil and military Control Fabrics have diverged. [Inference — moderate confidence] Critical-infrastructure operators will inherit the DoD concern without the DoD freeze. [Uncertainty] June IPP first flights not fetched.

**Opportunity.** An IPP MOA that names allowed manufacturers.

**LRRK relevance.** Control Fabric / Watch.

**Confidence.** High on the divergence.

## 04. Triton Guam calendar — mid-year, no fetched slip yet

*Event / publication dates: 10 April 2018 USNI/NAVAIR Guam-by-year-end*

**Verified record — [Fact — B1]** NAVAIR's April public plan still governs: first operational MQ-4C Tritons to Guam by end-2018. No June 2018 mishap or slip primary was fetched. Fetched: https://news.usni.org/2018/04/10/navy-first-operational-mq-4c-tritons-will-deploy-guam-years-end

**Threat landscape.** Pacific HALE Sense is still a schedule, not a bed-down.

**Intelligence assessment.** [Assessment — high confidence] Plan unretracted in June public fetch. [Uncertainty] June flight-test status not fetched.

**Opportunity.** A NAVAIR mid-year Triton update.

**LRRK relevance.** Campaign / Watch.

**Confidence.** High on the standing plan.

## 05. Sea Hunter / MQ-25 — unmanned sea and carrier lines still pre-award

*Event / publication dates: Sea Hunter to ONR 30 January 2018; MQ-25 award not until 30 August*

**Verified record — [Fact — A1]** DARPA's January notice remains the Sea Hunter custody Fact (MDUSV, COLREGS trials, possible 2018 Navy ops). No June 2018 MQ-25 award was fetched — correctly, because the Boeing contract is 30 August. Fetched: https://www.darpa.mil/news/2018/sea-hunter-prototype

**Threat landscape.** Large unmanned Move platforms are in research or source selection while small COTS Sense is frozen.

**Intelligence assessment.** [Assessment — high confidence] No June MDUSV IOC or MQ-25 award. [Uncertainty] June ONR test days not fetched.

**Opportunity.** MQ-25 award notice (August).

**LRRK relevance.** Lab / Watch.

**Confidence.** High on the negatives.

## Forward indicators

Ranked watchlist as of the collection cutoff (what a Watch desk would have monitored next).

1. First published COTS UAS exemption and any "blue" approved list.
2. SkyGuardian Atlantic attempt (July public plan).
3. MQ-25 source-selection announcement.
4. Triton induction/Guam bed-down risk.
5. FAA Reauthorization UAS title — Remote ID and recreational rewrite.

> **Collection integrity.** The June public text of the COTS freeze is the sUAS News page actually fetched. DOT IPP and LAANC/Triton/Sea Hunter from pages actually fetched. August Venezuela, August MQ-25, September Triton mishap, and December Gatwick were not used as June Facts. Reuters mirrors of the freeze returned stubs and were not cited.

*LRRK — security assurance for systems that sense, move, and act.*

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