# Kinematic Threat Brief

**LRRK Watch / Open-Source Intelligence** — Five current signals across systems that sense, move, and act.

| Field | Value |
| --- | --- |
| Collection cutoff | 28 February 2018 |
| Platform | Quiet Systems |
| Data label | Open-source intelligence // LRRK analytic product |
| Handling | Public-source material. Image rights require separate verification before publication. |

## Executive read

### BLUF

February left the January trust failures open: Sea Hunter is in ONR custody without a public fleet CONOPS, the Army DJI cease-use order is still the only fetched U.S. service-wide COTS ban, and no new primary closed the Hmeimim 13-UAV authorship fight.

### Key judgments

1. **[Assessment — high confidence]** DARPA's 30 January transfer of Sea Hunter to ONR as MDUSV remains the governing unmanned-surface Fact; no February Navy operational-evaluation release was fetched.
2. **[Assessment — high confidence]** The 2 August 2017 Army DJI cease-use memo, as reported by Defense One, is still unretracted at month's end.
3. **[Inference — moderate confidence]** The commercial Sense–Move–Act inventory (DJI Mavic-class) is refreshing faster than DoD has published a department-wide COTS UAS cybersecurity process — the gap the later May IG finding will name, but that finding is not this month's Fact.

### Analytic labels

- **Fact** — verified reporting or primary record
- **Assessment** — analytic judgment
- **Inference** — reasoned but not directly observed
- **Uncertainty** — unresolved information gap

### Source grades

- **A1** — authoritative primary record / directly confirmed
- **B1–B2** — generally reliable and corroborated
- **C3** — useful but requires caution

## 01. Sea Hunter / MDUSV — first full month under ONR

*Event / publication dates: DARPA transfer 30 January 2018; no February ONR test release fetched*

**Verified record — [Fact — A1]** DARPA's 30 January notice completed ACTUV and transferred Sea Hunter to ONR for continued development as MDUSV, citing 2017 COLREGS trials and modular MCM/TALONS payloads, and stating MDUSV "could transition to U.S. Navy operations by 2018" pending further tests. No February 2018 ONR or NAVAIR page fetched here announces an operational squadron, a rules-of-engagement, or a lost-link doctrine. Fetched: https://www.darpa.mil/news/2018/sea-hunter-prototype

**Threat landscape.** A crewless trail ship that already demonstrated COLREGS behaviors is now a research asset whose next autonomy increment is not on the public ledger.

**Intelligence assessment.** [Assessment — high confidence] Custody is ONR's. [Inference — moderate confidence] 2018 "operations" in the DARPA sentence means evaluation, not IOC. [Uncertainty] Sea Hunter II hull status not in the DARPA page.

**Opportunity.** An ONR February at-sea test notice.

**LRRK relevance.** Control Fabric / Lab / Sense-Move-Act. Passport still: ACTUV complete, MDUSV name, COLREGS 2017, no public ROE.

**Confidence.** High on transfer; low on February test events.

## 02. Hmeimim swarm — no February authorship close

*Event / publication dates: raid 5–6 January 2018; AP briefing 11 January 2018; no February independent wreckage primary fetched*

**Verified record — [Fact — B1]** The AP 11 January account remains the best fetched record: 13 UAVs, seven hard-kill, six EW landings, three intact recoveries, al-Mouazzara launch claim, Novikov's "impossible in makeshift conditions" line, Putin blaming unnamed non-Turkish "provocateurs," Pentagon denial. No February AP, Reuters, or Russian MoD English page fetched here identifies a sponsor with evidence beyond the January briefing. Fetched: https://apnews.com/general-news-78148846cdf64e02a2b06e972f14a74d

**Threat landscape.** A repeatable cheap-UAV raid recipe against a defended base, authorship still a political claim.

**Intelligence assessment.** [Assessment — high confidence] January raid stands. [Inference — low confidence] A February quiet month does not mean the launch cell is gone. [Uncertainty] GNSS module origin still unpublished in fetched English sources.

**Opportunity.** A recovered flight-controller photo with chip markings.

**LRRK relevance.** Kestrel / Watch. Keep the 13-UAV kit on the Passport; do not upgrade authorship.

**Confidence.** High on the January event; low on February follow-on.

## 03. Army DJI restriction — still the COTS Control Fabric

*Event / publication dates: Army memo 2 August 2017; Defense One report; no February rescission fetched*

**Verified record — [Fact — B1]** Defense One documented Lt. Gen. Anderson's order to cease DJI use, uninstall apps, pull batteries/media, and secure equipment, citing "cyber vulnerabilities" and 300+ airworthiness releases. No February 2018 Army or OSD page fetched here lifts or replaces that order with a DoD-wide COTS process. Fetched: https://www.defenseone.com/technology/2017/08/us-army-just-ordered-soldiers-stop-using-drones-chinas-dji/139999/

**Threat landscape.** Service-level ban without a published mitigation path leaves units with grounded inventory and no approved COTS substitute on the record.

**Intelligence assessment.** [Assessment — high confidence] Ban stands. [Inference — moderate confidence] Other services and civilian agencies still fly DJI. [Uncertainty] February inventory counts not fetched.

**Opportunity.** An OSD COTS UAS cybersecurity instruction (watch the IG line).

**LRRK relevance.** Passport / Control Fabric. DJI remains the named untrusted COTS type.

**Confidence.** High on standing order.

## 04. FAA UAS Integration Pilot Program — selections still pending

*Event / publication dates: White House / DOT IPP announced 2017; selections not yet public at February cutoff*

**Verified record — [Fact — B2]** The Unmanned Aircraft Systems Integration Pilot Program was announced in 2017 as a DOT/FAA partnership with state, local, and tribal governments to explore further NAS integration (package delivery, night, BVLOS concepts). This collection did not retrieve a February 2018 DOT selectee list. The May 9 DOT announcement of ten selectees is not this month's Fact and is not back-dated.

**Threat landscape.** Civil unmanned Act in controlled airspace remains waiver-bound; the trust question is who holds the data link and the local authorization.

**Intelligence assessment.** [Assessment — high confidence] IPP is an open 2018 process. [Inference — moderate confidence] Selections will become the public civil test ledger. [Uncertainty] February applicant count not fetched here.

**Opportunity.** The DOT selectee release (later May).

**LRRK relevance.** Control Fabric / Watch. Track IPP as the civil authorization experiment, not as a C-UAS program.

**Confidence.** High on program existence; low on February status details.

## 05. Extra-theater Reaper Act — no February shot table fetched

*Event / publication dates: NDS 19 January 2018; no February CENTCOM UAS table fetched*

**Verified record — [Fact — C3]** January's NDS public summary placed unmanned systems inside force design. No February 2018 AFRICOM, CENTCOM, or Pentagon unmanned-strike ledger was retrieved. Continuity of MQ-9 Reaper extra-theater Act is therefore inferred from prior-year public campaigns, not from a February primary.

**Threat landscape.** Armed RPA persistence without a monthly public shot table is a Control Fabric opacity, not a proof of inactivity.

**Intelligence assessment.** [Assessment — moderate confidence] Reaper remains the U.S. extra-theater Act platform of record. [Uncertainty] February Yemen/Somalia/Libya counts not fetched.

**Opportunity.** A CENTCOM February release.

**LRRK relevance.** Campaign. Grade February tempo C3.

**Confidence.** Moderate on continuation; low on numbers.

## Forward indicators

Ranked watchlist as of the collection cutoff (what a Watch desk would have monitored next).

1. ONR MDUSV at-sea test or Navy experimental-squadron notice.
2. DOT/FAA IPP selectee list.
3. DoD IG or OSD product on COTS UAS cybersecurity (the Army DJI memo is not a department process).
4. Next cheap-UAV raid on a defended state base (Hmeimim pattern).
5. Triton Guam deployment schedule and MQ-25 source-selection calendar.

> **Collection integrity.** Sea Hunter and Hmeimim from pages actually fetched in January and reused as open files, dates stated. Army DJI from the Defense One 2017 page actually fetched. IPP selections are explicitly not back-dated from May. Reuters stubs were not used. No later May 2018 DepSecDef COTS memo is treated as a February Fact.

*LRRK — security assurance for systems that sense, move, and act.*

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