LC-Ge · Kinematic Capability Profiles

Kinematic Capability Profile

# Kinematic Capability Profile

**LRRK Watch / Nation-state actor profile** — STIX 2.1 threat-actor fields applied to systems that sense, move, and act.

| Field | Value |
| --- | --- |
| Collection cutoff | 8 April 2026 |
| Platform | Quiet Systems |
| Data label | Open-source intelligence // LRRK analytic product |
| Handling | Public-source material. Image rights require separate verification before publication. |
| Actor | Canada |
| Short name | CA |
| UN membership | Member |
| Profile depth | documented |

## Executive read

### BLUF

Ottawa is stacking an in-service Army tactical Sense layer (CU-172) under a delayed, still-unarmed MQ-9B / CQ-9B MALE buy that will open as basic domestic ISR in 2028 — Passport-heavy Control Fabric, Act not yet fielded.

### Key judgments

1. **[Assessment — High confidence]** DND RPAS project page and the 19 December 2023 announcement buy 11 long-range armed remotely piloted aircraft and 6 ground control stations for an estimated CAD 2.49 billion, first delivery 2028, full operational capability 2030–2033.
2. **[Assessment — High confidence]** The Defense Post (8 April 2026), citing Ottawa Citizen ATI documents and a DND confirmation, says 2028 entry is limited to basic domestic ISR — unarmed, no communications intercept, not 24/7.
3. **[Assessment — High confidence]** Insitu (31 March 2026) holds an USD 8.6 million DND services contract on the in-service CU-172 (RQ-21A Blackjack / Integrator) fleet.

### Analytic labels

- **Fact** — verified reporting or primary record
- **Assessment** — analytic judgment
- **Inference** — reasoned but not directly observed
- **Uncertainty** — unresolved information gap

### Source grades

- **A1** — authoritative primary record / directly confirmed
- **B1–B2** — generally reliable and corroborated
- **C3** — useful but requires caution

## Identity

STIX 2.1 Identity + Threat Actor. Values from the open vocabularies only.

| STIX field | Value |
| --- | --- |
| name | Canada |
| aliases | Canadian Armed Forces / RCAF / Department of National Defence |
| identity_class | organization |
| threat_actor_types | nation-state |
| roles | sponsor, director |
| resource_level | nation-state |
| sophistication | advanced |
| primary_motivation | organizational-gain |
| secondary_motivations | ideology |
| goals | Sourced: medium-altitude armed RPAS for domestic and deployed ISR/strike (SSE 50/91); sustain Army CU-172 ISR-T. Uncertainty: named C-UAS inventory. |

## Intent and targeting

**[Fact]** DND (2023): RPAS is to monitor Canada territory and coastline, support civilian aid (fires, floods), and on deployed operations detect, recognize, identify, track, and engage targets; NORAD and NATO interoperability. Weapons only when necessary for the assigned task; not routinely carried in Canadian airspace. **[Fact]** GA-ASI: SkyGuardian is framed for domestic missions, NORAD continental defence, Five Eyes, and NATO. **[Assessment]** Intent is sovereignty/NORAD Sense first, with Act deferred past 2028.

## Capability — Sense

**[Fact]** Official RPAS technical figures: 24 m wingspan, 28-hour endurance, 315 km/h. **[Fact]** Insitu: CU-172 / Integrator is offered at up to 27.5 hours endurance and 50 lb payload across 10 bays for multi-intelligence ISR-T. **[Fact]** Canadian Army Today (undated on the fetched page): CU-172 carries day/night FMV, IR marker, laser rangefinder, communications relay; effective comms a little over 100 km; FOC May 2023 with 129 Battery, 4th Artillery Regiment (General Support). **[Fact]** 2028 MQ-9B initial use is basic domestic ISR only — no intercept of communications (ATI via Ottawa Citizen / Defense Post).

## Capability — Move

**[Fact]** MQ-9B first delivery 2028; aircraft at 14 Wing Greenwood and 19 Wing Comox; ground control in Ottawa (Uplands facility in later DND/Citizen reporting); Forward Operating Location for northern missions. **[Fact]** Arctic modifications (satellites, antennas, communications not previously on MQ-9; climatic qualification) delayed first delivery from 2025. **[Fact]** Army CU-172 is a field system (five air vehicles, three GCS, two launch/recovery units per system; battery holds two systems — Canadian Army Today). **[Assessment]** Move is runway MALE plus trailer/launcher tactical, not a USV navy.

## Capability — Act

**[Fact]** The RPAS project is explicitly an armed aerial system; the 2023 announcement includes initial weapons. **[Fact]** ATI briefings (Citizen / Defense Post): future loads include 250- and 500-pound-class bombs and low collateral damage bombs; 2028 fielding will not carry weapons. **[Uncertainty]** Named C-UAS effector in CAF inventory is not established.

## Inventory

| Domain | Status | Named systems (sourced) | Notes |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Air UAS | documented | MQ-9B SkyGuardian (CQ-9B); CU-172 Blackjack / Integrator | 11 MALE on contract; CU-172 in Army service |
| Surface USV | not established |  | Collection gap |
| Subsurface UUV / ROV | not established |  | Collection gap |
| C-UAS | not established |  | IDEaS sandbox language not treated as inventory |

## Industrial base and supply chain

**[Fact]** Direct commercial sale to GA-ASI plus FMS components from the United States. **[Fact]** Industrial and Technological Benefits apply; GA-ASI partners named by DND include MDA, CAE, and L3Harris Wescam (Team SkyGuardian Canada). **[Fact]** CU-172 sustainment is Insitu (Boeing). **[Assessment]** Passport is US prime with Canadian content offsets. Control Fabric is not a Canadian airframe line in sources used.

## Observed employment

**[Fact]** CU-172 is in service (FOC 2023). Canadian Army Today records a possible Latvia troop but states no deployment decision. **[Fact]** MQ-9B: first two airframes in production (DND January 2025 social post via Citizen); testing from 2026; no Canadian operational employment yet. **[Uncertainty]** ScanEagle Afghanistan hours on the Army Today page are historical context for the leased predecessor, not current inventory.

## Relationships

- `attributed-to` — Canadian Armed Forces; Department of National Defence; RCAF; Canadian Army (129 Battery).
- `uses` — CU-172; MQ-9B (on contract).
- `related-to` — GA-ASI; Insitu / Boeing; MDA; CAE; L3Harris Wescam; United States (FMS/NORAD); NATO; Five Eyes.

## LRRK turn-back

Moves **Sense / Move** (CU-172 now; CQ-9B from 2028), **Passport** (GA-ASI/FMS + Insitu), and **Control Fabric** (Team SkyGuardian offsets). **Act** is contracted, not fielded. Watch Arctic IOC. No Campaign object.

## Forward indicators

- Raise: first CQ-9B acceptance; a weapons-load IOC date; a named CAF C-UAS type; a CU-172 Latvia deployment order.
- Lower: FOC slip past 2033; CU-172 support contract lapse without a successor.

## Sources

1. The Defense Post, 8 April 2026, https://thedefensepost.com/2026/04/08/canada-mq9-limited-capability/ — B1–B2
2. Ottawa Citizen, undated on fetched page (ATI / Sadiku), https://ottawacitizen.com/public-service/defence-watch/new-military-drones-limited-capabilities — B1–B2
3. Insitu, 31 March 2026, https://www.insitu.com/news/insitu-awarded-8-6-million-services-contract-by-canada-armed-forces-to-support-long-endurance-cu-172-integrator-uas-fleet — A1
4. Government of Canada (DND), RPAS project page, https://www.canada.ca/en/department-national-defence/services/procurement/remotely-piloted-aircraft-system.html — A1
5. Government of Canada (DND), 19 December 2023, https://www.canada.ca/en/department-national-defence/news/2023/12/canada-acquiring-remotely-piloted-aircraft-systems-for-the-canadian-armed-forces.html — A1
6. General Atomics, 19 December 2023, https://www.ga.com/government-of-canada-orders-the-mq-9b-skyguardian-rpas-from-ga-asi — A1
7. Canadian Army Today, undated on fetched page, https://canadianarmytoday.com/blackjack-cleared-for-takeoff-to-latvia/ — B1–B2
8. United Nations, Member States list, https://www.un.org/en/about-us/member-states — A1

> **Collection integrity.** Ottawa Citizen limited-capabilities page carried no visible dateline; cutoff follows The Defense Post (8 April 2026). Canadian Army Today is undated. AOPS shipborne UAS and a funded C-UAS programme were not attached to fetched official URLs. `not established` is a gap.

*LRRK — security assurance for systems that sense, move, and act.*

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