LC-Ge · Kinematic Capability Profiles

Kinematic Capability Profile

# Kinematic Capability Profile

**LRRK Watch / Nation-state actor profile** — STIX 2.1 threat-actor fields applied to systems that sense, move, and act.

| Field | Value |
| --- | --- |
| Collection cutoff | 20 July 2026 |
| Platform | Quiet Systems |
| Data label | Open-source intelligence // LRRK analytic product |
| Handling | Public-source material. Image rights require separate verification before publication. |
| Actor | Taiwan |
| Short name | TW |
| UN membership | Not a UN member |
| Profile depth | documented |

## Executive read

### BLUF

Taipei is pairing a U.S. MQ-9B SkyGuardian buy with indigenous NCSIST types (Albatross II maritime ISR; Teng Yun 2 MALE/UCAV) so that Sense around the island does not rest on a single Passport.

### Key judgments

1. **[Assessment — High confidence]** NCSIST's Albatross II is a maritime ISR UAV with >300 km flight distance, >16 hours endurance, AIS/radar/EO, and an option to carry Might Hornet I attack drones (NCSIST product page).
2. **[Assessment — Moderate confidence]** Teng Yun 2 completed combat-readiness evaluation in May 2024; the Air Force is reconsidering a buy as a high-low mix with MQ-9B after endurance/payload upgrades (Focus Taiwan, 19 July 2026; Taipei Times, 20 July 2026).
3. **[Fact]** Four MQ-9B SkyGuardians were ordered from the United States in 2020, with delivery scheduled in 2026 and 2027 batches (Focus Taiwan).

### Analytic labels

- **Fact** — verified reporting or primary record
- **Assessment** — analytic judgment
- **Inference** — reasoned but not directly observed
- **Uncertainty** — unresolved information gap

### Source grades

- **A1** — authoritative primary record / directly confirmed
- **B1–B2** — generally reliable and corroborated
- **C3** — useful but requires caution

## Identity

STIX 2.1 Identity + Threat Actor. Values from the open vocabularies only.

| STIX field | Value |
| --- | --- |
| name | Taiwan |
| aliases | Republic of China; ROC |
| identity_class | organization |
| threat_actor_types | nation-state |
| roles | director, sponsor |
| resource_level | nation-state |
| sophistication | advanced |
| primary_motivation | organizational-gain |
| secondary_motivations | dominance |
| goals | Persistent maritime ISR around the island; complement imported HALE with indigenous MALE; hold a limited indigenous strike UAV option |

## Intent and targeting

**[Fact]** NCSIST: Albatross II is designed specifically for maritime ISR, vessel identification, and a common operational picture of surrounding waters, including anti-ship missile targeting support. **[Fact]** Focus Taiwan: Air Force says Teng Yun 2 would complement MQ-9B for air surveillance and defense. Named object is the waters and air approaches around Taiwan.

## Capability — Sense

**[Fact]** Albatross II: high-magnification optical thermal imager, AIS, radar, electronic reconnaissance; AI-assisted recognition; automatic take-off and landing; dual navigation. **[Fact]** Taipei Times: Teng Yun 2 development validated satellite C2, ELINT equipment, and SAR; redundant flight-control and navigation. **[Uncertainty]** Kuai Chi USV production figures from secondary 2025 pieces were not fetched and are unnamed.

## Capability — Move

**[Fact]** Albatross II: >300 km, >16 hours. **[Fact]** NCSIST: Teng Yun 2 capable of autonomous take-off and landing, satellite navigation, nearly 24 hours airborne (Focus Taiwan, citing NCSIST). **[Fact]** Upgraded Teng Yun 2 uses the same engine as MQ-9B SkyGuardian (Focus Taiwan, unnamed source — **C3** for the engine claim).

## Capability — Act

**[Fact]** Albatross II can carry buoy pods or Might Hornet I attack drones and support air-to-surface strike via microwave links (NCSIST). **[Uncertainty]** Teng Yun 2 strike fit is implied by “UCAV” language but quantities and munitions are not established; no Air Force order had been placed as of 19 July 2026.

## Inventory

| Domain | Status | Named systems (sourced) | Notes |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Air UAS | documented | Albatross II; Teng Yun 2; MQ-9B SkyGuardian (on order); Might Hornet I (carried type) | Teng Yun 1 never formally delivered (Taipei Times). |
| Surface USV | not established | | |
| Subsurface UUV / ROV | not established | | Hybrid-Aquatic-Aerial Vehicle named on NCSIST page as a related system — not inventoried as a UUV. |
| C-UAS | not established | | |

## Industrial base and supply chain

**[Fact]** NCSIST is the indigenous OEM. **[Fact]** MQ-9B is a U.S. FMS-class import (2020 order). Focus Taiwan: most Teng Yun 2 components besides the engine are domestically produced. Control Fabric is the dual path: U.S. HALE plus NCSIST.

## Observed employment

**[Fact]** Albatross II is a fielded product page type; RoCN IOT&E was discussed in 2023 Janes (not refetched). **[Fact]** Teng Yun 2 operational testing concluded May 2024; Air Force training from January 2023. Combat employment is not established.

## Relationships

- `attributed-to` Taiwan (Identity, `organization`)
- `uses` NCSIST; GA-ASI MQ-9B (on order)
- `related-to` United States as HALE supplier
- `related-to` China as the named pressure object in CCG Wing Loong-2 messaging (see CN filing)

## LRRK turn-back

Sense sits on Albatross II and the MQ-9B delivery path. Passport is the 2020 SkyGuardian case. Control Fabric is NCSIST localisation. Watch should treat Teng Yun 2 procurement as a binary indicator (order / no order). No Campaign object.

## Forward indicators

Raise: Air Force Teng Yun 2 contract; first MQ-9B arrival in 2026; a fetched USV programme page. Lower: further deferral of Teng Yun 2. Reclassify Act if Might Hornet I employment is shown in an official release.

## Sources

1. NCSIST, Albatross II UAV, https://www.ncsist.org.tw/eng/csistdup/products/product.aspx?catalog=55&product_id=589 — A1
2. Focus Taiwan / CNA, 19 July 2026, https://focustaiwan.tw/politics/202607190008 — B1–B2
3. Taipei Times, 20 July 2026, https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2026/07/20/2003861051 — B1–B2

> **Collection integrity.** Executive Yuan NT$44.2 billion drone plan and Kuai Chi USV figures were search-only and not fetched. USV/UUV/C-UAS remain gaps.

*LRRK — security assurance for systems that sense, move, and act.*

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