LC-Ge · Kinematic Capability Profiles

Kinematic Capability Profile

# Kinematic Capability Profile

**LRRK Watch / Nation-state actor profile** — STIX 2.1 threat-actor fields applied to systems that sense, move, and act.

| Field | Value |
| --- | --- |
| Collection cutoff | 9 June 2026 |
| Platform | Quiet Systems |
| Data label | Open-source intelligence // LRRK analytic product |
| Handling | Public-source material. Image rights require separate verification before publication. |
| Actor | Japan |
| Short name | JP |
| UN membership | Member |
| Profile depth | documented |

## Executive read

### BLUF

Japan is pairing a selected U.S. MQ-9B SeaGuardian HALE Sense orbit (23 planned) with an already-drilled indigenous mine-warfare Move stack (OZZ-5 UUV plus a JMU USV on Mogami-class) to close a Pacific-side surveillance gap.

### Key judgments

1. **[Assessment — High confidence]** JMSDF selected MQ-9B SeaGuardian; Naval News (9 June 2026) records a path of contractor-operated aircraft in FY2027, JMSDF-operated aircraft from FY2028, and a planned total of 23.
2. **[Assessment — High confidence]** On 15 June 2025 JS Mogami conducted the first JMSDF mine-disposal drill using a USV, with OZZ-5 UUV for detection (Naval News).
3. **[Inference — Moderate confidence]** AEW-pod studies on MQ-9B (Yomiuri via Naval News, 18 May 2026) would add air Sense but could trade endurance against the maritime-radar mission.


### Analytic labels

- **Fact** — verified reporting or primary record
- **Assessment** — analytic judgment
- **Inference** — reasoned but not directly observed
- **Uncertainty** — unresolved information gap

### Source grades

- **A1** — authoritative primary record / directly confirmed
- **B1–B2** — generally reliable and corroborated
- **C3** — useful but requires caution


## Identity

STIX 2.1 Identity + Threat Actor. Values from the open vocabularies only.

| STIX field | Value |
| --- | --- |
| name | Japan |
| aliases | Japan |
| identity_class | organization |
| threat_actor_types | nation-state |
| roles | director, sponsor |
| resource_level | nation-state |
| sophistication | advanced |
| primary_motivation | organizational-gain |
| secondary_motivations | dominance |
| goals | Persistent maritime surveillance complementary to P-1; uncrewed mine countermeasures on FFM; close the Pacific-side defence gap |

## Intent and targeting

**[Fact]** Naval News 2026: JMSDF intends MQ-9B to complement and partially replace peacetime maritime surveillance now done by Kawasaki P-1; bases planned at Kanoya and Hachinohe. Government concern cited: PLA bombers through the Bashi Channel and 2025 dual-carrier Western Pacific deployments. **[Fact]** 2025 Mogami drill: uncrewed mine detection and disposal off Iwo-To.

## Capability — Sense

**[Fact]** MQ-9B: EO sensors, SIGINT antennas, maritime surveillance radar, >24 hours endurance (Naval News 2026). **[Fact]** OZZ-5: ATLA-developed, MHI-built UUV with Thales HFSAS and NEC LFSAS for bottom and buried mines; pre-set route, shipboard analysis after recovery (Naval News 2025).

## Capability — Move

**[Fact]** MQ-9B path: two contractor-operated at Kanoya in FY2027 to write procedures; two more JMSDF-operated from FY2028; 23 total planned. **[Fact]** OZZ-5: 4 m, 0.5 m diameter, >9 hours, 7 knots (Thales 2020 contract story — 2025 Naval News restates MHI/ATLA manufacture). **[Fact]** JMU USV launched and recovered from Mogami stern with expendable mine-disposal charges.

## Capability — Act

**[Fact]** Mine disposal via USV-carried EMD charges (Naval News 2025) — an Act against mines, not ships. **[Uncertainty]** Combat-support USV with SSM/torpedoes announced at DSEI Japan 2025 (Asian Military Review, fetched) is in detailed design with prototype sea tests expected by end-2027 — not inventory. MQ-9B Japanese weapons fit is not established.

## Inventory

| Domain | Status | Named systems (sourced) | Notes |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Air UAS | documented | MQ-9B SeaGuardian (selected / planned) | Japan Coast Guard already operating SeaGuardian since 2022 (Naval News 2024 cluster restated in 2026 piece). |
| Surface USV | documented | JMU mine-disposal USV (unnamed type on Mogami) | Combat-support USV in design (AMR 2025). |
| Subsurface UUV / ROV | documented | OZZ-5 | In drill use from Mogami-class. |
| C-UAS | not established | | |

## Industrial base and supply chain

**[Fact]** GA-ASI air vehicle; MHI OZZ-5; JMU USV; Thales SAMDIS sonar; NEC LFSAS; ATLA as the R&D/procurement architect. Passport is the SeaGuardian selection; Control Fabric is the Japan–France mine-sonar stack and a Japan–Australia UUV comms research path mentioned in secondary pages not fetched.

## Observed employment

**[Fact]** Mogami mine-disposal drill, 15 June 2025, Iwo-To. **[Fact]** SeaGuardian test operations at Hachinohe and Kanoya since May 2023 (GA-ASI via Naval News). Not a combat campaign.

## Relationships

- `attributed-to` Japan (Identity, `organization`)
- `uses` GA-ASI MQ-9B (selected); MHI OZZ-5; JMU USV
- `related-to` United States (OEM); France (Thales sonar); NATO partners only as interoperability context

## LRRK turn-back

Sense is SeaGuardian plus OZZ-5 sonar. Move is Mogami as mothership. Act is EMD mine disposal. Watch the FY2027 contractor orbit. Passport is the 23-aircraft plan. Kestrel is the AEW-pod study.

## Forward indicators

Raise: first FY2027 contractor orbit; combat-support USV sea trial 2027; a fetched ATLA English page naming the USV. Lower: SeaGuardian contract slip past FY2025 signing window. Reclassify C-UAS when a JSDF type is fetched.

## Sources

1. Naval News, 9 June 2026, https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2026/06/japan-considers-aew-radar-pod-for-mq-9b-seaguardian-drones/ — B1–B2
2. Naval News, June 2025, https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2025/06/mogami-class-frigate-leads-jmsdfs-first-ever-mine-disposal-drill-using-usv/ — B1–B2
3. Asian Military Review, May 2025, https://www.asianmilitaryreview.com/2025/05/japan-announces-multirole-combat-support-usv-development-foc/ — B1–B2

> **Collection integrity.** ScanEagle and other small UAS were not attached to a fetched 2025–26 primary. C-UAS remains a gap.


*LRRK — security assurance for systems that sense, move, and act.*

<p align="right"><span style="opacity:0.35;letter-spacing:0.18em;font-size:0.8em">L-CGe</span></p>