LC-Ge · Kinematic Capability Profiles

Kinematic Capability Profile

# Kinematic Capability Profile

**LRRK Watch / Nation-state actor profile** — STIX 2.1 threat-actor fields applied to systems that sense, move, and act.

| Field | Value |
| --- | --- |
| Collection cutoff | 3 July 2024 |
| Platform | Quiet Systems |
| Data label | Open-source intelligence // LRRK analytic product |
| Handling | Public-source material. Image rights require separate verification before publication. |
| Actor | Slovenia |
| Short name | SI |
| UN membership | Member |
| Profile depth | documented |

## Executive read

### BLUF

Slovenia’s public kinematic weight is industrial (C-Astral Belin / Bramor) plus a G2G export to Montenegro — Control Fabric and Passport, with SAF inventory left as Uncertainty.

### Key judgments

1. **[Assessment — High confidence]** C-Astral (Ajdovščina) manufactures Belin / Bramor C4EYE tactical ISR UAS and supplied systems that reached Ukraine via a Slovenian government initiative (Defense News, 26 October 2023).
2. **[Assessment — High confidence]** Slovenia contracted Belin-V for Montenegro (handover 2024) as G2G agent.
3. **[Uncertainty]** A Jane’s “SAF to receive Belin-V” line was not fetched as full text; SAF on-hand counts are not inventoried.

### Analytic labels

- **Fact** — verified reporting or primary record
- **Assessment** — analytic judgment
- **Inference** — reasoned but not directly observed
- **Uncertainty** — unresolved information gap

### Source grades

- **A1** — authoritative primary record / directly confirmed
- **B1–B2** — generally reliable and corroborated
- **C3** — useful but requires caution

## Identity

STIX 2.1 Identity + Threat Actor. Values from the open vocabularies only.

| STIX field | Value |
| --- | --- |
| name | Slovenia |
| aliases | Slovenija / Slovenian Armed Forces / Ministry of Defence |
| identity_class | organization |
| threat_actor_types | nation-state |
| roles | sponsor / director |
| resource_level | nation-state |
| sophistication | intermediate |
| primary_motivation | organizational-gain |
| secondary_motivations | ideology |
| goals | Sourced: tactical ISR industrial base; G2G Belin procurement cooperation. Uncertainty: SAF fleet composition in 2026. |


## Intent and targeting

**[Fact]** G2G agreement language: military reconnaissance and aerial surveillance. **[Assessment]** Intent is tactical ISR and an exportable national champion, not a sourced MALE strike force.

## Capability — Sense

**[Fact]** Belin/Bramor: EO/IR tactical ISR, encrypted datalink in manufacturer and trade descriptions. **[Assessment]** Sense is mini-tactical. **[Uncertainty]** Other SAF types (armed Virus SW 121 appears only on encyclopedia pages and is omitted).

## Capability — Move

**[Fact]** Electric flying-wing, catapult launch, parachute recovery, ~40 km class in trade reporting. **[Assessment]** Move is backpack/tactical. **[Uncertainty]** 2026 SAF endurance employment is not established.

## Capability — Act

**[Uncertainty]** C-Astral systems in these sources are unarmed ISR. C-UAS not established.

## Inventory

| Domain | Status | Named systems (sourced) | Notes |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Air UAS | documented | Belin / Bramor C4EYE (industry; Ukraine donation via government) | SAF inventory not established in fetched official text |
| Surface USV | not established |  | Collection gap |
| Subsurface UUV / ROV | not established |  | Collection gap |
| C-UAS | not established |  | Collection gap |

## Industrial base and supply chain

**[Fact]** Entirely manufactured and assembled in Slovenia (C-Astral to Defense News). **[Fact]** 2022 revenue jump attributed partly to post-2022 demand. **[Assessment]** Control Fabric is real and small. **[Uncertainty]** 2026 capacity is not in the 2023 article.

## Observed employment

**[Fact]** Ukrainian use of Belin, per C-Astral (Defense News). **[Fact]** Montenegro handover 2024 is Slovenian G2G, not SAF combat.

## Relationships

- `attributed-to` — Ministry of Defence of the Republic of Slovenia.
- `related-to` — C-Astral Aerospace.
- `related-to` — Montenegro (G2G); Ukraine (donation path).

## LRRK turn-back

Moves **Control Fabric**, **Passport**, and **Sense** as an industrial object. SAF Watch inventory is a gap.

## Forward indicators

- Raise: an official MoD page naming Belin-V in SAF service in 2026; a C-UAS buy.
- Lower: C-Astral loss of government orders.
- Reclassify: remains documented on industry even if SAF cells stay empty.

## Sources

Numbered. Named outlet, date, URL, grade. Dead or unverified links are a form defect.

1. Defense News, 26 October 2023, https://www.defensenews.com/unmanned/2023/10/26/slovenian-firm-quietly-provided-surveillance-drones-to-ukraine/ — B1–B2
2. Boscarol, 3 July 2024, https://boscarol.si/en/minister-sarec-handed-over-the-c-astral-drones-to-montenegro/ — B1–B2
3. United Nations, Member States list, https://www.un.org/en/about-us/member-states — A1

> **Collection integrity.** Cutoff is 26 October 2023 for the industrial employment source; the 2024 G2G page is used as relationship context. Jane’s SAF contract text was not fetched. `not established` for SAF counts is a gap.

*LRRK — security assurance for systems that sense, move, and act.*

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