LC-1 · Kinematic Threat Briefs

Kinematic Threat Brief

# Kinematic Threat Brief

**LRRK Watch / Open-Source Intelligence** — Five current signals across systems that sense, move, and act.

| Field | Value |
| --- | --- |
| Collection cutoff | 31 December 2025 |
| Platform | Quiet Systems |
| Data label | Open-source intelligence // LRRK analytic product |
| Handling | Public-source material. Image rights require separate verification before publication. |

## Executive read

### BLUF

December closed the civilian Sense door and opened a statutory C-UAS door: Taipei priced T-Dome at about NT$400 billion, the President signed the FY2026 NDAA (P.L. 119-60) with CLEAR SKIES-class authorities on 18 December, and on 22 December the FCC put all foreign-produced UAS and critical components — and the FY25 §1709 DJI/Autel set — on the Covered List. New Chinese airframes are a licensing problem; the ones already authorized are not grounded.

### Key judgments

1. **[Assessment — high confidence]** S. 1071, the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2026, became P.L. 119-60 on 18 December 2025; the signing statement highlights Golden Dome, airspace-sovereignty authorities, and new state/local tools against threatening UAS (CLEAR SKIES).
2. **[Assessment — high confidence]** On 22 December the FCC Public Safety and Homeland Security Bureau added to the Covered List (a) UAS and UAS critical components produced in a foreign country and (b) communications and video-surveillance equipment and services listed in FY25 NDAA §1709(a)(1) — expressly covering DJI and Autel and their subsidiaries, affiliates, partners, JV counterparties, and technology-sharing licensees.
3. **[Inference — high confidence]** The Covered List action blocks new FCC equipment authorizations; it does not revoke existing authorizations. The U.S. civilian Sense fleet of already-approved DJI/Autel models remains legal to use and, for those models, to sell.

### Analytic labels

- **Fact** — verified reporting or primary record
- **Assessment** — analytic judgment
- **Inference** — reasoned but not directly observed
- **Uncertainty** — unresolved information gap

### Source grades

- **A1** — authoritative primary record / directly confirmed
- **B1–B2** — generally reliable and corroborated
- **C3** — useful but requires caution

## 01. T-Dome’s first public price tag — NT$400 billion

*Event / publication dates: 14 December 2025 Taipei Times, senior official*

**Verified record — [Fact — B1]** A senior official, speaking anonymously, told Taipei Times that T-Dome would cost an estimated NT$400 billion (about US$12.8 billion), roughly one-third of a proposed NT$1.25 trillion special defense budget. The same account sketched layers: at least two Chiang Kung (“Strong Bow”) batteries and 128 missiles (~NT$36.6 billion), Tien Kung IV as the high-altitude tier, NASAMS for the lower tier, and continued use of PAC-3, land-based Tien Chien II, and Stinger. Defense Minister Wellington Koo has said T-Dome, AI-shortened kill chains, and decoupling from PRC defense supply chains are priorities. Fetched: https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2025/12/14/2003848857

**Threat landscape.** The October brand now has a twelve-figure price and a layered missile list. The small-UAV layer is still the under-specified part.

**Intelligence assessment.** [Assessment — moderate-to-high confidence] NT$400 billion is an official-adjacent estimate, not an enacted line. [Inference — high confidence] Ballistic and cruise layers will eat the money unless a cheap interceptor line is written in. [Uncertainty] How much of the NT$400 billion is C-sUAS versus Tien Kung IV.

**Opportunity.** The special-budget bill text.

**LRRK relevance.** Control Fabric / Watch. Passport T-Dome as a priced stack, still waiting for the sUAS effector line.

**Confidence.** Moderate-to-high on the estimate; high that it is not yet law.

## 02. 18 December — FY2026 NDAA becomes P.L. 119-60

*Event / publication dates: signed 18 December 2025*

**Verified record — [Fact — A1]** S. 1071, National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2026, Public Law 119-60, 18 December 2025. The presidential signing statement says the Act authorizes FY26 appropriations for the Department of War and others, supports Golden Dome, “restoring America’s airspace sovereignty,” and includes CLEAR SKIES-class authority for state and local law enforcement to protect against unmanned aircraft that threaten the public, plus a new felony for violating national-defense airspace. Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative is extended (Sec. 1243) with cross-fiscal-year authority; a $500 million authorization figure is in the committee summary. Fetched: https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/PLAW-119publ60/html/PLAW-119publ60.htm ; https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/DCPD-202501207/pdf/DCPD-202501207.pdf

**Threat landscape.** Homeland C-UAS authority is being pushed down to the sheriff as well as up to Golden Dome.

**Intelligence assessment.** [Assessment — high confidence] Enactment and the signing-statement themes are primary. [Inference — moderate confidence] CLEAR SKIES is the domestic legal hook that FY25’s DJI audit clause was not. [Uncertainty] First state/local shoot-down or jamming action under the new authority.

**Opportunity.** The enrolled CLEAR SKIES title and the USAI dollar table.

**LRRK relevance.** Control Fabric / Passport. A U.S. public-safety C-UAS Passport after 18 December sits on a new statute, not only 10 U.S.C. §130i.

**Confidence.** High.

## 03. 22 December — all foreign UAS onto the Covered List

*Event / publication dates: 22 December 2025, PSHSB / DA-25-1086*

**Verified record — [Fact — A1]** The FCC’s Public Safety and Homeland Security Bureau added to the Covered List “Uncrewed aircraft systems (UAS) and UAS critical components produced in a foreign country” following a White House-convened executive-branch interagency determination that such UAS and critical components pose unacceptable risks to U.S. national security and to the safety and security of U.S. persons. DoD/DoW and DHS may make specific determinations excluding a given UAS or class. The determination text frames World Cup/Olympic security, cartel and foreign-government collection, fleet-disable, and swarm-coercion risks, and says the action is necessary to “Unleash American Drone Dominance” and “Restore American Airspace Sovereignty.” Fetched: https://docs.fcc.gov/public/attachments/DA-25-1086A1.txt ; https://www.fcc.gov/covered-list-faqs-uas-and-uas-critical-components

**Threat landscape.** New foreign Sense platforms cannot get a radio authorization. That is an import and product-launch ban in practice.

**Intelligence assessment.** [Assessment — high confidence] The 22 December Covered List update is the primary. [Inference — high confidence] “Foreign-produced” is broader than “PRC.” [Uncertainty] How DoW/DHS exemptions will be run, and on what clock.

**Opportunity.** The first published exemption.

**LRRK relevance.** Control Fabric / Passport. After today a new foreign UAS has no lawful FCC path unless exempted.

**Confidence.** High.

## 04. The same day — §1709 writes DJI and Autel by name

*Event / publication dates: 22 December 2025 (FY25 NDAA §1709 automatic/directed listing)*

**Verified record — [Fact — A1]** The same Covered List action adds communications and video-surveillance equipment and services listed in Section 1709(a)(1) of the FY25 NDAA (P.L. 118-159), which expressly names Shenzhen Da-Jiang Innovations (DJI) and Autel Robotics and extends to subsidiaries, affiliates, partners, joint-venture counterparties, and entities with technology-sharing or licensing agreements. FY25 gave national-security agencies one year from 23 December 2024 to make a risk determination; in the absence of a clearing audit, listing follows. Fetched: https://www.mondaq.com/unitedstates/terrorism-homeland-security-defence/1725852/fcc-adds-all-foreign-made-uas-and-uas-critical-components-to-the-covered-list ; https://docs.fcc.gov/public/attachments/DA-25-1086A1.txt

**Threat landscape.** The brand-level civilian Sense monopoly is now a named Covered List entry, not just a “foreign UAS” class.

**Intelligence assessment.** [Assessment — high confidence] DJI and Autel are on the list by statute as well as by the class determination. [Inference — high confidence] White-label and licensed clones are in the statutory sweep. [Uncertainty] Litigation posture and any stay.

**Opportunity.** DJI’s and Autel’s formal responses and any petition for reconsideration.

**LRRK relevance.** Passport / Control Fabric. A DJI tail number authorized before 22 December is a different legal object from a new SKU.

**Confidence.** High.

## 05. Already-authorized models are not grounded

*Event / publication dates: 22–23 December 2025 FCC FAQ / contemporaneous trade press*

**Verified record — [Fact — A1]** FCC FAQ and PSHSB: the 22 December action prohibits new equipment authorizations for listed UAS and critical components. It does not prohibit import, sale, marketing, or use of device models the FCC has already authorized. Retailers may continue to sell previously approved models; operators may continue to fly them. Narrow carve-outs discussed in the FAQ include items DoW determines are “toy drones,” and — until a stated sunset — Blue UAS Cleared List items and certain Buy American domestic-end-product UAS. Fetched: https://www.fcc.gov/covered-list-faqs-uas-and-uas-critical-components ; https://arstechnica.com/gadgets/2025/12/djis-new-drones-will-not-be-available-in-the-us-as-fcc-ban-takes-effect/

**Threat landscape.** The installed civilian Sense base is grandfathered. The future catalog is not. That is a fleet-aging problem, not a grounding.

**Intelligence assessment.** [Assessment — high confidence] Grandfathering is explicit. [Inference — high confidence] Public-safety fleets that standardized on DJI have a finite spare-and-new-model horizon. [Uncertainty] How long existing model authorizations survive a later revocation action.

**Opportunity.** An agency-by-agency fleet share for pre-22 December DJI.

**LRRK relevance.** Passport / Watch. Record authorization date on every U.S. civilian UAS this week.

**Confidence.** High.

## Forward indicators

Ranked watchlist as of the collection cutoff (what a Watch desk would have monitored next).

1. First DoW/DHS Covered List exemption — who, and for which SKU.
2. DJI/Autel litigation and any stay of the 22 December action.
3. T-Dome special-budget enactment and the C-sUAS line inside the NT$400 billion.
4. First CLEAR SKIES state/local use.
5. Whether January nights over Ukraine stay on the 700-drone design case, and whether Sting’s jet-kill rate holds.

> **Collection integrity.** P.L. 119-60, the signing statement, DA-25-1086, and the FCC FAQ are the primaries. Taipei Times 14 December is official-adjacent on price. No 2026 Ninth Circuit DJI filings imported. No classified Golden Dome architecture. January 2025 BIS ANPRM is prior and is not re-filed as a December event.

*LRRK — security assurance for systems that sense, move, and act.*

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