LC-Ge · Kinematic Capability Profiles

Kinematic Capability Profile

# Kinematic Capability Profile

**LRRK Watch / Nation-state actor profile** — STIX 2.1 threat-actor fields applied to systems that sense, move, and act.

| Field | Value |
| --- | --- |
| Collection cutoff | 10 June 2026 |
| Platform | Quiet Systems |
| Data label | Open-source intelligence // LRRK analytic product |
| Handling | Public-source material. Image rights require separate verification before publication. |
| Actor | Norway |
| Short name | NO |
| UN membership | Member |
| Profile depth | documented |

## Executive read

### BLUF

Norway’s public kinematic weight is a nano-UAS force (Black Hornet, designed in Norway) plus a Kongsberg uncrewed-underwater industrial base — Control Fabric is heavier than a named MALE squadron.

### Key judgments

1. **[Assessment — High confidence]** NDMA signed a framework with Teledyne FLIR (June 2022) for Black Hornet 3 nano-UAVs, valued up to NOK 475 million, with Norway already a user since 2015.
2. **[Assessment — High confidence]** Kongsberg’s June 2026 DRASS partnership names UUVs, maritime ISR, and manned-unmanned teaming as industrial goals; HUGIN is shown as the house AUV.
3. **[Uncertainty]** A 2026 small-tactical UAV framework competition is reported in trade press that was not fully retrieved; no awarded type is named here.

### Analytic labels

- **Fact** — verified reporting or primary record
- **Assessment** — analytic judgment
- **Inference** — reasoned but not directly observed
- **Uncertainty** — unresolved information gap

### Source grades

- **A1** — authoritative primary record / directly confirmed
- **B1–B2** — generally reliable and corroborated
- **C3** — useful but requires caution

## Identity

STIX 2.1 Identity + Threat Actor. Values from the open vocabularies only.

| STIX field | Value |
| --- | --- |
| name | Norway |
| aliases | Norge / Norwegian Armed Forces / Forsvarsmateriell |
| identity_class | organization |
| threat_actor_types | nation-state |
| roles | sponsor / director |
| resource_level | nation-state |
| sophistication | advanced |
| primary_motivation | organizational-gain |
| secondary_motivations | ideology |
| goals | Sourced: nano-UAS for all services; uncrewed underwater industrial development. Uncertainty: tactical UAV winner. |


## Intent and targeting

**[Fact]** Defence Minister Gram (2022): strengthen defence capability and support Norwegian industry that designs Black Hornet. **[Assessment]** Intent is ubiquitous small Sense plus an underwater industrial Act/Sense path, not a sourced MQ-9-class campaign.

## Capability — Sense

**[Fact]** Black Hornet 3: pocket nano-UAS, visible and thermal video, short endurance (manufacturer figures in later Ukraine-donation releases). **[Fact]** Kongsberg contribution: AUVs, sonar, sensors, navigation. **[Uncertainty]** Service MALE or tactical-class ISR type is not established.

## Capability — Move

**[Fact]** Nano class (<50 g in the 2022 ministerial definition). **[Assessment]** Move is soldier-carried, not runway. **[Uncertainty]** Ship-launched UAS types not established.

## Capability — Act

**[Uncertainty]** Armed tactical UAV not established. C-UAS not established as a named Norwegian inventory (Kongsberg C-UAS export to Poland is not Norwegian employment).

## Inventory

| Domain | Status | Named systems (sourced) | Notes |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Air UAS | documented | Black Hornet 3 | Framework 2022; in service since 2015 |
| Surface USV | not established |  | Kongsberg USV language is industrial, not a named Navy type |
| Subsurface UUV / ROV | documented | HUGIN family (industry); UUV partnership with DRASS | Service inventory vs export is Uncertainty |
| C-UAS | not established |  | Collection gap for Norwegian forces |

## Industrial base and supply chain

**[Fact]** Black Hornet designed and manufactured in Norway (Teledyne FLIR). **[Fact]** Kongsberg–DRASS partnership 10 June 2026 on UUVs and MUM-T. **[Assessment]** Control Fabric is real in nano-air and subsea. **[Uncertainty]** Award of the 2026 tactical UAV framework is not established.

## Observed employment

**[Fact]** Norwegian use of Black Hornet since 2015; 2022 framework expands it. Ukraine donations exist in 2023 company releases and are employment *by Ukraine*, not inventoried as Norwegian campaign.

## Relationships

- `attributed-to` — Forsvarsmateriell / Norwegian Armed Forces.
- `uses` — Teledyne FLIR Black Hornet.
- `related-to` — Kongsberg; DRASS (industry); United States (corporate owner of FLIR).

## LRRK turn-back

Moves **Sense / Move** (nano-UAS), **Control Fabric** (Black Hornet + Kongsberg UUV), and **Passport**. No Watch campaign. Lab is the unawarded tactical UAV contest.

## Forward indicators

- Raise: a named tactical UAV winner; a Navy HUGIN inventory page; a C-UAS buy.
- Lower: Black Hornet replaced without a successor.

## Sources

Numbered. Named outlet, date, URL, grade. Dead or unverified links are a form defect.

1. The Defense Post, 24 June 2022, https://thedefensepost.com/2022/06/24/norway-teledyne-hornet-drones/ — B1–B2
2. The Defense Post, 10 June 2026, https://www.thedefensepost.com/2026/06/10/kongsberg-drass-underwater-defense-partnership/ — B1–B2
3. United Nations, Member States list, https://www.un.org/en/about-us/member-states — A1

> **Collection integrity.** regjeringen.no 2022 Black Hornet release timed out; Defense Post is used. Shephard 2026 tactical-UAV contest was not fully retrieved and no type is named. Kongsberg official DRASS URL 404’d; Defense Post is the fetched partnership text. `not established` is a gap.

*LRRK — security assurance for systems that sense, move, and act.*

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